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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Nov 30th, 2018–Dec 1st, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Caution in the mountains is needed for the next while. A soft slab lays on a weak layer made of surface hoar and/or a suncrust. Buried only 40cm deep, it can easily be triggered by a human.

Weather Forecast

A gradual slumping of Arctic air will envelope the region over the next few days. Today, cloudy with sunny breaks, light ridge-top winds, and freezing levels rising to 1200m. Saturday and Sunday, it should be mainly cloudy with light ridge-top winds, alpine highs of -8*C, and no snow in the forecast.

Snowpack Summary

40cm of snow covers a surface hoar or suncrust layer at TL & sheltered ALP locations. Winds have created a soft slab on the surface hoar/suncrust, which was reactive to ski cuts. Moist, heavy snow below 1600m. October crust near ground may be poorly bonded on some high elevation north aspects.

Avalanche Summary

The natural avalanche cycle from Wednesday has died down, with no new avalanche observations yesterday. Snowpack test results from south aspects showed a 35-50cm soft slab is reactive to a human load. Surface hoar and suncrusts tend to not disappear too quickly; this slab must be given some respect in the upcoming days.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

SW winds have formed a soft slab on lee features in the alpine. Point releases out of extreme terrain have the potential to pull soft slabs when they reach planar features. Human triggering of these slabs is also a concern.
Use caution in lee areas. Recent wind loading have created wind slabs.Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

We are shifting the November 21st surface hoar layer to a persistent weak layer. This layer is widespread and possibly most pronounced at treeline elevation.
Use caution on open slopes and convex rolls at treeline where buried surface hoar may be preserved.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger persistent slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5