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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Apr 9th, 2018–Apr 10th, 2018
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Kananaskis.

The snowpack is not likely to get a good freeze overnight, so loose wet avalanches at lower elevations may be a problem in addition to those already identified in the "Avalanche Problem" section.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

Tuesday will bring light flurries with accumulations between 5 and 10cm.  Alpine temperature will reach a high of 0 °C with freezing levels near 2400m or higher. Ridge-top winds will be from the southwest at 30 km/h gusting to 60 km/h. Long term forecasts have a significant snowstorm arriving on Thursday will accumulations near 25cm. Apparently it's not yet Spring!

Avalanche Summary

A few naturally triggered slabs have been observed in very steep Alpine terrain on solar aspects in the past 24 to 48hrs. These slides were up to size 2.0 and were 50cm deep on average.

Snowpack Summary

Moist snow on all aspects up to 2300m and higher on solar aspects, but  moderate winds kept the upper Alpine cooler. Both surface and buried wind slabs are found in wind prone areas in the Alpine and these have been building more into the Treeline with the persistent winds. The March 15th crust down 30 to 50cm on solar aspects has been active in recent days in isolated terrain (see avalanche summary). Cornices are large, are feeling the heat of the April sun, and should be avoided.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Watch for wind slabs in Alpine and Treeline terrain in wind prone areas such as cross-loaded gullies and immediately below ridge-lines. These slabs may become more sensitive to triggering as the temperatures rise during the day.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.Evaluate unsupported slopes critically.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Cornices

Cornices are large and looming. When the solar radiation is strong and/or the air temperature rises, cornice collapses could be a major concern.
Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger persistent slabs.Cornices become weak with daytime heating.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

The March 15th melt-freeze crust, buried 30-50cm on solar aspects, could be an issue on bigger slopes, particularly in the Alpine. Evaluate the snowpack for the presence/absence of this problem layer before committing to a terrain feature.
Avoid steep Southerly aspects.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2