Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Jan 16th, 2023 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada shorton, Avalanche Canada

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Continue to make conservative terrain choices and consider the consequences of an avalanche on a chosen slope. There is variability in the snowpack throughout the region, but what is consistent is that the snowpack is shallower and weaker than average.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate

Avalanche Summary

Several small (size 1 to 1.5) slab avalanches were triggered by riders on Saturday and Sunday, as well as some larger size 2 natural slabs on north through east aspects in the alpine. Most of these released on the surface hoar layer from early January. A few large (size 2.5) deep persistent slab avalanches in alpine terrain were triggered naturally and with explosives over the weekend. Also, there was one skier triggered size 2.5 avalanche near Golden on Saturday. This avalanche had a 1 m crown and ran on the facets near the bottom of the snowpack. It was in the alpine on a low angle slope.

Snowpack Summary

Wind slabs may be lingering in alpine terrain and along ridges. Freezing levels have been variable throughout the region with a crust found up to 2000 m in most areas. Up to 15 cm of recent storm snow exists at treeline and above.

There are two concerning weak layers in the top meter of the snowpack. The first is a layer of surface hoar from early January and the second is a layer of surface hoar, facets, and a crust from December. Both these layers are most concerning at treeline and above. There is also a layer of large facets at the bottom of the snowpack that continues to produce avalanches and will likely persist for a prolonged period of time.

In general, the snowpack is shallow and weak.

Weather Summary

Monday night

Cloudy with flurries bringing trace amounts of snow, 20 km/h northwest wind, freezing level drops to valley bottom with treeline temperatures cooling to -8 °C.

Tuesday

Mostly cloudy with the possibility of light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow, 20 km/h west wind, freezing level around 1000 m with treeline temperatures around -5 °C.

Wednesday

Mostly cloudy with light flurries bringing trace amounts of snow, 30 to 40 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures around -6 °C.

Thursday

Cloudy with scattered flurries bringing up to 5 cm of snow, 30 km/h southwest wind, treeline temperatures around -6 °C.

More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Be mindful that deep instabilities are still present and have produced recent large avalanches.
  • Avoid steep, rocky, and wind effected areas where triggering slabs is more likely.
  • Carefully assess open slopes and convex rolls where buried surface hoar may be preserved.
  • Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs

There are two concerning weak layers in the top meter of the snowpack. The first is a layer of surface hoar down 20 to 40 cm buried in early January. The second is a layer of surface hoar, facets and/or a crust from December. This layer can be found down 40 to 70 cm.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Deep Persistent Slabs

A weak layer near the base of the snowpack, buried in November, remains a concern. Human triggering of this layer remains possible, especially in shallow areas with variable snow depths.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Jan 17th, 2023 4:00PM

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