Avalog
Register
Get forecast notifications
Create an account to receive email notifications when forecasts are published.
Register
Login
Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 30th, 2019–Dec 31st, 2019
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: South Coast.

A strong storm will impact the mountains on Tuesday creating very dangerous avalanche conditions. Avoid travelling on steep slopes and minimize exposure to overhead hazard.

Confidence

High - We are confident the likelihood of avalanche will increase with the arrival of the forecast weather.

Weather Forecast

Monday night: Cloudy, 20-30 cm of snow, moderate southwest winds, alpine temperatures around 2 C, with freezing levels near 1100 m.

Tuesday: Cloudy, 40-60 cm of snow becoming rain in the late afternoon, strong southwest winds, alpine high temperatures around 2 C with freezing levels rising to 1800 m in late afternoon.

Wednesday: Cloudy, 20-30 cm of snow, moderate west winds, alpine high temperatures near 0 C with freezing level dropping below 1000 m.

Thursday: Mostly cloudy, 3-5 cm of snow, light northwest winds, alpine high temperatures near 0 C, freezing level dropping below 500 m.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported in the region. 

The incoming storm is expected to initiate a natural avalanche cycle on Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

The incoming storm will add a new layer to our snowpack that is expected to become rapidly unstable as snow accumulates and transitions to rain.

The snow that fell over the weekend is now well settled with a strong bond to the previous surface. Snowpack depths near treeline range from 150-200 cm, and the snowpack diminishes rapidly with elevation.

Terrain and Travel

  • Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind or rain.
  • The first few hours of rain will likely be the most dangerous period.
  • Keep in mind that wet avalanches can be destructive due to their high density.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Overnight and early morning snowfall is expected to build reactive storm slabs on all aspects and elevations before the precipitation changes to rain in the afternoon.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Loose Wet

Precipitation is forecast to intensify and switch to rain, causing wet loose avalanches. Although these avalanches initiate as point releases, they have the potential to entrain large and destructive amounts of dense, heavy snow.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Almost Certain

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5