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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 23rd, 2019–Dec 24th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

The natural cycle may have tapered off, but human triggering remains likely in areas that have not seen avalanche activity since the weekend.

Minimize your exposure to overhead hazard today!

Weather Forecast

A benign weather pattern with cooling temperatures and mixed skies is the trend for this week in Rogers Pass.

A mix of sun and cloud today. Freezing levels are forecast at 900m with an alpine high of -8°C.

Snowpack Summary

The Atmospheric River dumped 75mm of precipitation over the weekend, and is settling slowly with cooling temperatures. The Dec 11th SH (5-12mm) is now down 90-120cm, and sits on a rounding midpack. The Nov 23 SH/Cr is down 160-185cm. Early season crusts still persist in the lower snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

The natural avalanche cycle has tapered off, however human triggered avalanches in areas that haven't slid remain likely. This weekend's storm saw numerous natural and artillery triggered avalanches to size 3.5 on all aspects and elevations. Slides released in the storm snow then stepped down to the persistent slab (Dec 11 SH), down 90 - 120cm.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm slabs are expected to be widespread and sensitive to human triggering, especially in areas where avalanches have not yet occurred after this weekend's storm.

  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

The Dec 11th Surface Hoar(SH), size 5-12mm is down 90cm+. This sliding layer was reactive in our artillery control over the weekend. Large avalanches will reach valley bottom.

  • Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.
  • Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 3.5