Avalanche Forecast

Good

Saturday: A mix of sun and cloud with a chance of flurries. Freezing level is at valley bottom with alpine temperatures around -6. Winds are light from the northwest. Sunday: Mainly cloudy with a chance of flurries. Freezing level remains at valley bottom with an above freezing layer developing late in the day. Winds are moderate to strong from the northwest. Monday: Mainly cloudy. Alpine temperatures should rise during the day with an above freezing layer between 1500 and 2000 m. Winds are moderate to strong from the north. 

There are reports of isolated slab avalanches up to size 2 from wind loaded slopes in response to the northerly outflow winds. Clear weather on Wednesday revealed a previous natural avalanche cycle (+48 hours) with slabs up to size 3. Most events appeared to release within the recent storm snow, with a few events suspected to have stepped down to the late December surface hoar or facet layers.

Northerly outflow winds have produced new wind slabs in exposed terrain, primarily near the coast. A dusting of new snow may have buried a new layer of surface hoar that formed on Wednesday night. Below this the recent storm snow is settling and gaining strength, but a weak layer of surface hoar or facetted snow sits at the base of the storm snow (down 60-90 cm). Recent snowpack tests give generally moderate sudden planar, or "pops", results on this buried surface hoar layer and indicate potential for wide propagation. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer continues to concern local avalanche professionals. This weakness is unlikely to be triggered by a single person, but it remains possible with a very heavy load (e.g. cornice fall) or from a thin-spot trigger point.