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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 8th, 2012–Jan 9th, 2012
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Confidence

Fair - Intensity of incoming weather is uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

Monday: 15-25cm of snow is expected Sunday night and into Monday. / Moderate to strong southwest winds / Freezing level dropping from 1500m to 600m throughout the day Tuesday: Mix of sun and cloud with light flurries / light to moderate northwest winds / Freezing level at surface Wednesday: Clear / light to moderate north winds / Freezing level at surface

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanche activity reported.

Snowpack Summary

Weaknesses within and under the 70-100+cm of storm snow that fell over the past 10 days have most likely gained some strength. More recent dribs and drabs of snow in the Duffey area (more in Coquihalla) have added to a soft wind slab that now sits on the surface on lee aspects at treeline and in the alpine.Persistent weaknesses remain a concern in the northern part of the region. Buried surface hoar on sheltered treeline slopes and below and facets with associated crusts in exposed treeline and alpine areas are probably down well over a metre in most places, and facets lurk near the base of the snowpack in shallow rocky areas. These basal facets seem to be more pronounced and reactive in the Chilcotin and on the eastern side of the Duffey.Wind-loading has resulted in highly variable slab thicknesses with the potential for fractures triggered in highly sensitive thin slab areas to propagate into highly destructive deep slab avalanches. Furthermore, weaknesses within the slab create the potential for step-down fractures.Expect further wind slab and storm slab development with forecast weather

Avalanche Problems

Persistent Slabs

Primarily a concern in the northern part of the region. More likely to trigger from thin slab areas, or from storm or wind slab avalanches stepping down to deeper weaknesses.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6

Wind Slabs

Watch for sensitive wind slabs lurking on lee and cross-loaded terrain at treeline and in the alpine. Tender cornices will also be a concern at ridgecrests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 5

Storm Slabs

Watch for touchy storm slabs developing with new snow on steeper, unsupported slopes.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4