Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Light snow and strong southwest winds overnight with the freezing level close to 800 metres. Snow becoming heavy with strong southerly winds on Friday and freezing level around 1500 metres Snow ending overnight as the storm moves off to the east. Some sunny breaks on Saturday with moderate westerly winds and freezing levels around 1000 metres. On Sunday, a mix of sun and cloud with moderate southerly winds and freezing levels rising up to alpine elevations.

No new avalanches reported on Wednesday. On Tuesday a skier remotely triggered a size 3.0 slab avalanche from 20 metres away that released on the early January surface hoar. This avalanche happened at 2300 metres on a south-southeast aspect in the Duffey Lake area. The fracture propagated 350 metres and ran 750 metres to the valley bottom.

New storm slabs are forecast to develop during the day on Friday. In the south, 40-70 cm of recent storm snow sits on a widespread and generally supportive rain crust that was buried on Jan. 28. The bond to the crust appears to be fairly good but at least one notable storm snow weakness was observed 10 cm above the crust. Fresh pockets of wind slab may also form in immediate lee features. The combination of heavy storm loading, rain, and warm temperatures likely flushed out the mid-January persistent weakness in most areas in the Cascades. Further north, generally 20-40 cm of dry storm snow overlies the late-Jan rain crust below around 1800-2000 m. Above this elevation the new snow sits on settled storm snow or previously wind affected surfaces. Fresh pockets of wind slab are likely in exposed lee terrain. Where it still exists, the mid-January surface hoar layer is between 60 and 130 cm below the surface. This persistent weakness could be lingering on higher elevation slopes that did not previously avalanche and triggering remains a concern.