Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 4th, 2016 8:38AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada triley, Avalanche Canada

New storm slabs developing during the day on Friday. If the storm is earlier or more intense than forecast, avalanche danger may reach HIGH by Friday afternoon.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Light snow and strong southwest winds overnight with the freezing level close to 800 metres. Snow becoming heavy with strong southerly winds on Friday and freezing level around 1500 metres Snow ending overnight as the storm moves off to the east. Some sunny breaks on Saturday with moderate westerly winds and freezing levels around 1000 metres. On Sunday, a mix of sun and cloud with moderate southerly winds and freezing levels rising up to alpine elevations.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches reported on Wednesday. On Tuesday a skier remotely triggered a size 3.0 slab avalanche from 20 metres away that released on the early January surface hoar. This avalanche happened at 2300 metres on a south-southeast aspect in the Duffey Lake area. The fracture propagated 350 metres and ran 750 metres to the valley bottom.

Snowpack Summary

New storm slabs are forecast to develop during the day on Friday. In the south, 40-70 cm of recent storm snow sits on a widespread and generally supportive rain crust that was buried on Jan. 28. The bond to the crust appears to be fairly good but at least one notable storm snow weakness was observed 10 cm above the crust. Fresh pockets of wind slab may also form in immediate lee features. The combination of heavy storm loading, rain, and warm temperatures likely flushed out the mid-January persistent weakness in most areas in the Cascades. Further north, generally 20-40 cm of dry storm snow overlies the late-Jan rain crust below around 1800-2000 m. Above this elevation the new snow sits on settled storm snow or previously wind affected surfaces. Fresh pockets of wind slab are likely in exposed lee terrain. Where it still exists, the mid-January surface hoar layer is between 60 and 130 cm below the surface. This persistent weakness could be lingering on higher elevation slopes that did not previously avalanche and triggering remains a concern.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
New storm slabs are expected to develop with forecast snow and strong winds.
Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 4

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
Buried persistent weaknesses may have been destroyed in most areas, but remain cautious in high elevation terrain (particularly in the north of the region) where this problem may be lingering. New storm loading may release or step down to this layer.
Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

3 - 6

Valid until: Feb 5th, 2016 2:00PM