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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 17th, 2018–Jan 18th, 2018
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: South Coast.

A wet, wild winter storm system with heavy precipitation, strong winds and mild temperatures is increasing the avalanche hazard. Avoid areas that receive heavy loading from snow and wind until the new snow has had a chance to settle.

Confidence

Moderate - Freezing levels are uncertain

Weather Forecast

TONIGHT: Wet snow. Accumulation 20-30 cm. Ridge wind extreme, southwest. Temperature 2. Freezing level lowering to 1100 m.THURSDAY: Snow. Accumulation 30-40 cm. Ridge wind strong, southwest. Temperature near 0. Freezing level 1000 m.FRIDAY: Snow. Accumulation 20-30 cm. Ridge wind moderate, southwest. Temperature near 0. Freezing level 1000 m.SATURDAY: Snow increasing. Accumulation 20-30 cm. Ridge wind light to moderate, southwest. Temperature near 0. Freezing level 900 m.

Avalanche Summary

Last Tuesday a skier was injured in a loose, wet avalanche on the North Shore mountains when the top 10-15 cm of wet snow released on the January 8th crust. On Friday explosive control produced a size 1 avalanche that released a 45 cm thick slab on a weak layer just above the January 7th crust.

Snowpack Summary

At upper treeline and alpine elevations about 10- 20 cm of new snow has fallen and now covers the January 16th crust. Near treeline and below, rain has soaked the upper snowpack which consists of 15-20 cm of wet snow above three prominent crusts (January 10th, January 8th and January 7th) from recent warm weather and rain events. The most notable layer is the January 7th rain crust, which is now buried 40-60 cm deep. The snowpack depth at 1000 m is about 150 cm and many early season hazards are still present.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New snow combined with strong southerly winds will form touchy storm slabs particularly at upper treeline and alpine elevations. These slabs overlie a recent melt-freeze crust and will continue to build with more snow and wind in the forecast.
Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Loose Wet

At lower elevations where rain has soaked the upper snowpack making loose wet and wet slab avalanches possible in steep, unsupported terrain or convex rolls.
Use extra caution on slopes if the snow is moist or wet.Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2