Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 16th, 2018 5:22PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Persistent Slabs.

Avalanche Canada mgrist, Avalanche Canada

The recent storm snow has been particularly reactive as indicated by a number of recent human-triggered avalanches. Riding preserved powder in sheltered trees is a good option for the weekend.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain

Weather Forecast

It looks like the storm track on Saturday will head south of this region, with only minor snowfall amounts in the North Columbias. Clear and cold Sunday onwards, with overnight lows near -25 Celsius in some locations. Saturday: 2-5 cm new snow (10 cm possible in some southerly locations). Treeline temperature around -12C. Light winds becoming moderate north easterly. Sunday: Sunny but cold. Treeline temperatures around -17C. Winds light northeasterly.Monday: Sunny with cloudy periods. Treeline temperature around -15C. Winds light northerly.

Avalanche Summary

On Friday, touchy storm slabs to size 2 were reported in the Monashees, thanks to locally intense flurries. At least three small (size 1) human-triggered avalanches were reported on Wednesday, that ran in recent storm snow with crowns approximately 30 cm deep on north, east and south-facing slopes at around 2000 m. There were also two large (size 2.5) natural avalanches in alpine terrain that initiated as wind slabs but stepped down to the mid-January weak layer. In Rogers Pass on Monday, skiers remotely triggered a size 3.5 persistent slab avalanche from 40 m away on a south-facing, cross-loaded slope at 2600 m. Although deeper, persistent avalanche activity is becoming less frequent, there is still potential for these layers to react.

Snowpack Summary

35cm of recent storm snow is settling into a slab in the upper snowpack. Strong winds, most recently from the northwest, shifted these accumulations into deeper, reactive slabs in wind-exposed terrain. These accumulations overlie a mix of older wind slabs in exposed higher elevation terrain, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, a rain crust below 1600m, and surface hoar on sheltered slopes.Below the snow surface, several persistent weak layers make up a troublesome snowpack. In the top 1.5-2.5 m of the snowpack, two surface hoar layers buried in January can be found. Expect to find one or other of these on all aspects and elevations.Deeper in the snowpack (around 200 cm deep) is a facet/crust/surface hoar layer from December, most prevalent at and below treeline.Near the base of the snowpack is a crust/facet combo, most likely to be triggered from thin spots in the alpine.All of these layers have produced large avalanches recently. The wide distribution and ongoing reactivity of these layers suggests that avoidance through choosing simple terrain is the best strategy.

Problems

Storm Slabs

An icon showing Storm Slabs
New storm slabs have been especially reactive in wind-exposed terrain, and may be slow to gain strength due to a mix of underlying weak surfaces. Watch for new wind slab development and reverse loading due to recent northwest winds.
Stay off recent wind loaded areas until the slope has had a chance to stabilize.If triggered, wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.The new snow may require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

An icon showing Persistent Slabs
Several troublesome layers exist in the snowpack and may be reactive to large triggers such as a cornice or storm slab release. Human triggering may also be possible in shallow or thin, rocky areas.
Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of runout zones.Avoid steep convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger persistent slabs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Valid until: Feb 17th, 2018 2:00PM