Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Track of incoming weather systems is uncertain

It looks like the storm track on Saturday will head south of this region, with only minor snowfall amounts in the North Columbias. Clear and cold Sunday onwards, with overnight lows near -25 Celsius in some locations. Saturday: 2-5 cm new snow (10 cm possible in some southerly locations). Treeline temperature around -12C. Light winds becoming moderate north easterly. Sunday: Sunny but cold. Treeline temperatures around -17C. Winds light northeasterly.Monday: Sunny with cloudy periods. Treeline temperature around -15C. Winds light northerly.

On Friday, touchy storm slabs to size 2 were reported in the Monashees, thanks to locally intense flurries. At least three small (size 1) human-triggered avalanches were reported on Wednesday, that ran in recent storm snow with crowns approximately 30 cm deep on north, east and south-facing slopes at around 2000 m. There were also two large (size 2.5) natural avalanches in alpine terrain that initiated as wind slabs but stepped down to the mid-January weak layer. In Rogers Pass on Monday, skiers remotely triggered a size 3.5 persistent slab avalanche from 40 m away on a south-facing, cross-loaded slope at 2600 m. Although deeper, persistent avalanche activity is becoming less frequent, there is still potential for these layers to react.

35cm of recent storm snow is settling into a slab in the upper snowpack. Strong winds, most recently from the northwest, shifted these accumulations into deeper, reactive slabs in wind-exposed terrain. These accumulations overlie a mix of older wind slabs in exposed higher elevation terrain, a sun crust on steep solar aspects, a rain crust below 1600m, and surface hoar on sheltered slopes.Below the snow surface, several persistent weak layers make up a troublesome snowpack. In the top 1.5-2.5 m of the snowpack, two surface hoar layers buried in January can be found. Expect to find one or other of these on all aspects and elevations.Deeper in the snowpack (around 200 cm deep) is a facet/crust/surface hoar layer from December, most prevalent at and below treeline.Near the base of the snowpack is a crust/facet combo, most likely to be triggered from thin spots in the alpine.All of these layers have produced large avalanches recently. The wide distribution and ongoing reactivity of these layers suggests that avoidance through choosing simple terrain is the best strategy.