Avalanche Forecast

Very mild temperatures Thursday and steady winds maintained firm to shallow moist surface snow. Recent rain and mild temperatures over the past week has allowed for a consolidating and mostly uniform spring-like snowpack in the Hurricane Ridge area.Melt water has drained well through the snowpack that ranges from about 3-4 ft on solar aspects to 7-10 ft in the deepest shaded slopes, though the snowcover is highly variable in this terrain.The recent warm and wet weather has also allowed glide cracks to open on several slopes with smooth ground surfaces. Some of these glide cracks produced large Glide Avalanches over the past week in common locations such as Steeple, and the Steep-and-Icy avalanche paths.Cornices have reduced in size significantly over the past week of mild and periodically wet weather. 

NWAC pro-observer Matt Schonwald and NPS Rangers traveled in the Mt Angeles areas Thursday, 2/8. The snowpack was described as a fairly uniform, well drained late spring snowpack, lacking any distinctive layering. The recent warm weather, rain and winds have melted or stripped significant snow from the southerly facing terrain and even shaded terrain near large rocky features. There were a few glide avalanches observed, likely releasing last Saturday during a rain event. Cornices had been trimmed greatly over the past weeks mild and wet weather.

Avalanches are unlikely today, though not impossible. No significant avalanche problems exist. Continue to use normal caution. Always carry a beacon, shovel, and probe and use travel practices that minimize your exposure to avalanche terrain.However, there are some remaining considerations to stay safe in the mountains.A strong surface crust should form as temperatures drop Thursday night through Friday. Many snow surfaces may be firm and icy. A slip and fall in steep terrain above rocks or cliffs could be today’s biggest hazard in the mountains.Several glide cracks have been reported so watch for these potential travel hazards. With the cool expected weather, these cracks are more of a danger if you fall in them than an avalanche problem.

Low level moisture, combined with a very weak passing small scale disturbance is maintaining a few showers into the afternoon Friday, mainly over the Mt Baker, Mt Rainier and the central Cascade passes.  Showers should end by the evening with gradual clearing as the flow aloft becomes increasingly northerly.A strong upper ridge of high pressure remains offshore and will keep the Pacific Northwest cool with low freezing levels through Saturday and beyond.The ridge nudges closer to the coast and builds a little further northward Saturday allowing for clearing skies Friday night and plenty of sunshine for Saturday.The next disturbance to affect the area is slated for Sunday and this weak system will spread increasing clouds across the area late Saturday and Saturday night.

A weak disturbance is forecast to move through the upper ridge position offshore and form a low pressure circulation off Vancouver Island by early Sunday morning, then turn sharply southward moving to the Oregon coast later Sunday. This system should provide a little snowfall over most areas, but the water amounts look to be light, with general snowfall of 1-4 inches expected and the greater amounts over the Mt Hood area. The disturbance moves south of the area Sunday night with showers ending most areas, but lingering over the Mt Hood area.The ridge offshore should rebound Monday to bring a cool and drier NNE flow. Gradual clearing is expected from the north Monday with showers ending early Monday in the Mt Hood area.Tuesday looks to be another dry cool day under the influence of the offshore upper ridge remaining in place.