Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 6th, 2018 4:44PM

The alpine rating is moderate, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Cornices and Loose Wet.

shorton, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Rising freezing levels and sunny breaks will weaken the surface snow. Danger will increase with the incoming storm on Thursday and Friday.

Summary

Confidence

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations

Weather Forecast

WEDNESDAY: Sunny with high clouds in the afternoon, light southwest wind, freezing level rising to around 1800 m.THURSDAY: Flurries increasing throughout the day with 5-10 cm of snow by the afternoon, moderate southwest wind, freezing level rising to around 1200 m.FRIDAY: Another 5-10 cm of snow with freezing level rising to around 1200 m.

Avalanche Summary

No recent avalanches have been reported.A MIN report from just outside the region near Squamish (Watersprite Lake) describes a natural size 2 avalanche that failed on a south aspect at 1750 m (see photo and details here). Also, check out the MCR report from the Sea-to-Sky Gondola (here) that talks about the strong late winter sun initiating up to size 2 natural avalanches last week.

Snowpack Summary

Isolated flurries are depositing light amounts of new snow throughout the region and sporadic sunny breaks could weaken the surface snow. 50-70 cm of snow from last week is settling and gaining strength. On southerly aspects, the storm snow sits above a sun crust which is a potential layer to monitor.Cornices have formed on many alpine ridgelines. They will become touchier as they grow in size, as temperatures rise, and as they are subject to the strong late-winter sun on clear days.

Problems

Cornices

Continued snowfall and strong wind from around the clock has formed large cornices on many ridgelines. Cornices are inherently unstable, unpredictable, and demand respect, especially when the sun is out.

Avoid slopes when the solar radiation is strong, especially if they have large cornices overhead.Firm cornices may pull back into flat terrain at ridgetop if they fail.Give cornices a wide berth when traveling on or below ridges.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Wet

Snow on steep south slopes will become weak with daytime warming and direct sunlight.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Minimize exposure when the solar radiation is strong, especially if snow is moist or wet.Be alert to conditions that change with elevation.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 2

Valid until: Mar 7th, 2018 2:00PM