Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Jan 3rd, 2023 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Persistent Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.
CG,
Avalanche Canada
Natural avalanche activity has slowed, but with no new snow to refresh the slopes, folks are pushing into untouched terrain to get their own "fresh tracks".
Be very wary of moving into thinner snowpack areas, where the likelihood of triggering the deeper persistent layers is much higher. The resulting avalanches would be large, destructive, and hard to avoid.
Choose conservative, supported terrain to get to the great skiing in the Pass.
Summary
Confidence
Avalanche Summary
On Monday a size 2 avalanche was observed off of the popular Bruins Ridge into 8812 Bowl. It was likely remotely triggered by a skier, 40-50cm deep, 60m wide and ran 200m, covering tracks down into the bowl.
On Sunday several size 2-2.5 natural storm slab avalanches were observed from steep, wind-loaded terrain, and several size 1-1.5 dry loose avalanches from steep and rocky solar aspects.
Snowpack Summary
The top 30cm of snow is low-density and provides great powder turns. The Dec 23 facet interface is down ~70cm but is rounding and gaining strength. The Dec 5 and Nov 17 surface hoar layers have been less reactive recently but had been exhibiting 'sudden' results in snowpack tests.
Weather Summary
Dry conditions reign supreme in Rogers Pass, with a high pressure ridge keeping all weather systems at bay.
Wed: sun and clouds, Alp high -8*C, light S winds
Thurs: sun and clouds, Alp high -1*C, light S winds
Fri: mix of sun/cloud with isolated flurries, trace snowfall, Alp high -3*C, light/gusty SW winds
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid thin areas like rock outcroppings where you're most likely to trigger avalanches failing on deep weak layers.
- Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
- Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
Problems
Persistent Slabs
30-60cm of settled storm snow buries the Dec 23 facet interface. This layer will be a concern in steep terrain, on convex rolls, or areas where the snowpack is unsupported (pillows, hanging snow fields, etc.).
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Deep Persistent Slabs
The Nov 17 layer, down 60-120cm, consists of facets, a rotting crust, and decomposing surface hoar. This layer still shows hard, sudden collapse/planar results in snowpack tests. Though becoming less likely to trigger, the resulting avalanche would be quite large.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Treeline, Below Treeline.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Jan 4th, 2023 4:00PM
