Avalanche Forecast

Moderate

This week there have been afternoon solar triggered avalanches sz 2-2.5, with isolated sz 3's. Some of these avalanches occuring at treeline and below have failed at the ground and gouged deep into the snowpack.

Deep persistent slabs are a concern, with a report of a cornice-triggered pocket high on Mt Smart failing to glacial ice, as well as a deep slab on Mt Fidelity.

Sun and warm afternoon temps have created a surface crust on solar aspects at all elevations, while N'ly slopes contain settled, dry powder (good, predictable riding). An incoming storm will bury these surfaces and patchy surface hoar starting Thursday night.

Below this is a generally strong snowpack, however the basal weakness of rounding facets/decomposing crust near the ground should factor in to your terrain-use decisions.

High pressure breaks down Thursday, as a frontal system brings light precip Thursday night into Friday. Temperature will cool.

Tonight: clear, Alp low -5*C, light SW ridge winds

Thurs: PM Flurries 6cm, Alp high -4, light SW ridge winds, FZL 1600m

Fri: Scattered flurries, 4cm, Alp high -8*C, light W winds, FZL 1200m

• Avoid sun exposed slopes, especially if snow surface is moist or wet.
• A moist or wet snow surface, pinwheeling and natural avalanches are all indicators of a weakening snowpack.
• Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.