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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

May 2nd, 2023–May 3rd, 2023
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Regions: Glacier.

Recent natural avalanche activity up to size 4, and continued warm temperatures warrants leaving the avalanche hazard at high. Travel in avalanche terrain is not recommended.

Confidence

High

Avalanche Summary

A very active period of spring avalanche activity started Friday and has continued through Tuesday. Wet/loose natural and controlled avalanches have been widespread with numerous sz 3, and isolated sz 4's. Many slidepaths failed down to ground once the avalanches reached Treeline elevations and lower. The number of avalanches has started to taper off, but large destructive avalanches are still possible.

Snowpack Summary

Warm temps have penetrated the snowpack creating an moist, isothermal snowpack treeline and below on all aspects and into the alpine on solar aspects. Buried crusts in the upper 50 cm are breaking down. Shallow snowpack features have loose, weak snow to ground.

20-40cm above the ground the Nov 17 basal weakness can still be found in many areas.

Weather Summary

High pressure continues through Friday with high freezing levels and some building cloud towards the end of the week.

Tonight: Mostly clear, Alpine Low 9°C, FZL 3600m, light S ridgetop wind

Wed: Mix of sun/cloud, Alpine High 13°C, FZL 3700m, light SW winds

Thurs: Mix of sun/cloud, Alpine high 14°C, FZL 3600m, light E winds

Terrain and Travel Advice

  • Avoid the runout zones of avalanche paths. Very large avalanches have been running full path.
  • As surface loses cohesion due to melting, loose wet avalanches become common in steeper terrain.
  • If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Loose Wet

With intense solar heating and no overnight refreeze, the surface snow is moist and weak. Loose, wet avalanches are easily triggered in steep terrain and reliably gain enough mass to step down to the basal weakness at Treeline elevations and lower.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Deep Persistent Slabs

Several hot days with no overnight refreeze has warmed and destabilized the snowpack. This early season basal weakness has woken up below 2000m and is producing very destructive avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4