Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
The gross, wet weather bomb has left us. The time for calm has come.
Take a slower pace as you return to the backcountry. Have a look around. It is a changed landscape due to the whopping amounts of snow and rain this past week.
Weather Forecast
Wow. That was a ugly conclusion to the stormy weather. Now, things get cool and calm.
Tonight: Flurries, 10cm, FZL 1400m, mod / gusting strong SW winds
Thurs: Isolated flurries, FZL 1300m, light / gusting mod W winds
Fri: Cloudy with sunny periods, Alpine high -10*C, light W winds
Sat: Cloudy with flurries, 5cm, Alpine high -10*C, light W winds
Snowpack Summary
Rain to above 2200m has fallen on 1-1.5m storm slabs, saturating the surface. The mid to lower snowpack is generally rounded and well bonded. Tree-line and below tree-line travel is difficult, with extremely dense, rain-soaked snow. Early season hazards still linger below 1700m.
Avalanche Summary
Natural avalanche activity to sz 3.5 Tues night through Wed raged with the warm temps, extreme ridge-top winds, and rain into the alpine.
Artillery control is on-going while the bulletin is being written. Needless to say, results from explosives have been a blast to observe, with avalanches running to valley bottom, sz 3 to 3.5.
Confidence
Freezing levels are uncertain
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Rapid snow/rain loading, rising temps, and strong/extreme SW winds created slabs over 1m thick. Rain into the Alpine elevations also added to the new load. These new slabs will need time to settle and stabilize.
- Be wary of large open slopes that did not previously avalanche.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5
Wind Slabs
Strong to extreme winds will have created wind slabs on lee and cross-loaded features. Be aware that high winds can load lee features much lower than normal (think 10-15 turns into your run).
- If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5