Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Dec 1st, 2021 4:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Storm Slabs and Wind Slabs.

Chris Gooliaff,

Glacier.

The gross, wet weather bomb has left us. The time for calm has come.

Take a slower pace as you return to the backcountry. Have a look around. It is a changed landscape due to the whopping amounts of snow and rain this past week.

Summary

Weather Forecast

Wow. That was a ugly conclusion to the stormy weather. Now, things get cool and calm.

Tonight: Flurries, 10cm, FZL 1400m, mod / gusting strong SW winds

Thurs: Isolated flurries, FZL 1300m, light / gusting mod W winds

Fri: Cloudy with sunny periods, Alpine high -10*C, light W winds

Sat: Cloudy with flurries, 5cm, Alpine high -10*C, light W winds

Snowpack Summary

Rain to above 2200m has fallen on 1-1.5m storm slabs, saturating the surface. The mid to lower snowpack is generally rounded and well bonded. Tree-line and below tree-line travel is difficult, with extremely dense, rain-soaked snow. Early season hazards still linger below 1700m.

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity to sz 3.5 Tues night through Wed raged with the warm temps, extreme ridge-top winds, and rain into the alpine.

Artillery control is on-going while the bulletin is being written. Needless to say, results from explosives have been a blast to observe, with avalanches running to valley bottom, sz 3 to 3.5.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain

Problems

Storm Slabs

Rapid snow/rain loading, rising temps, and strong/extreme SW winds created slabs over 1m thick. Rain into the Alpine elevations also added to the new load. These new slabs will need time to settle and stabilize.

Be wary of large open slopes that did not previously avalanche.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3.5

Wind Slabs

Strong to extreme winds will have created wind slabs on lee and cross-loaded features. Be aware that high winds can load lee features much lower than normal (think 10-15 turns into your run).

If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3.5

Valid until: Dec 2nd, 2021 4:00PM