Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to extremely variable snowpack conditions reported through the region. Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

SATURDAY NIGHT - Mainly cloudy with a few flurries / moderate west wind / alpine low temperature near -13 

SUNDAY - Mainly cloudy with sunny periods and scattered flurries / moderate to strong west wind / alpine high temperature near -6 / freezing level 1400 m

MONDAY - Mainly cloudy with scattered flurries / strong southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -6 / freezing level 1500 m

TUESDAY - Mainly cloudy sunny periods and isolated flurries / moderate southwest wind / alpine high temperature near -7 / freezing level 1500 m

On Friday, there were several reports of solar-triggered natural avalanches up to size 2.

There were a few size 1 human-triggered wind slab avalanches reported on Thursday.

On Wednesday, there were a few reports of natural and explosives-triggered size 2 storm and wind slab avalanches, as well as a few natural and explosives-triggered cornices up to size 3. There were also a few notable remotely triggered avalanches reported in the north of the region that likely failed on the recently buried facet layer. The MIN report can be viewed here.

On Monday and Tuesday in the north of the region, there were reports of numerous size 1-2.5 natural, human and explosives-triggered storm slab avalanches. 

Further south in the region on Monday and Tuesday, there were reports of natural, explosives and human-triggered size 1-1.5 wind slab avalanches. One notable natural size 2 wind slab on a northeast aspect is suspected to have stepped down to deeper persistent layers.

Earlier in February, there were a few reports of large, sporadic avalanches (size 2.5-3) on southeast aspects in the alpine, likely releasing on a layer of facets on a crust (see a photo here), and a large human-triggered avalanche (size 2.5) on surface hoar near Quartz Creek.

The Purcells have received anywhere from 10-50 cm of fresh snow in the past week. The higher amounts have generally been in the western and northern parts of the region, with lesser amounts to the east and south. This new snow sits on a persistent weak layer of facets that formed during the last cold snap. Recent variable winds have formed wind slabs on many aspects. 

Another persistent weak layer that formed in late January is now 30-90 cm deep. In the northern Purcells, this layer has been reported as a surface hoar layer at treeline and below, but a combination of facets or crusts could exist at all elevations.

The northern Purcells also have an older surface hoar layer that can still be found 60-120 cm deep at treeline. Additional weak layers may exist near the base of the snowpack. Steep, rocky areas with a shallow, or thin to thick snowpack should be considered possible trigger points.

• Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
• Recent wind has varied in direction so watch for wind slabs on all aspects.
• Choose slopes that are well supported and have limited consequence.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of a persistent slab.
• Avoid shallow, rocky areas where the snowpack transitions from thick to thin.