Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
The snowpack is strong and well consolidated after a week of mild dry weather. Watch for wet surface snow conditions on some steep sun exposed slopes, especially below rocks or cliffs and above terrain traps where even small slides could be dangerous.
Detailed Forecast
More of the same expected for Sunday. Mostly sunny and warm with light winds.Â
In the Hurricane Ridge area, temperatures have reached the low 50's Saturday and similar conditions are expected Sunday.
Surface melt-freeze crusts should form overnight on solar exposed slopes and gradually melt through the day. Loose wet avalanches should be less likely Sunday and mainly confined to steep sun exposed slopes below rocks or trees absorbing abundant radiation. Watch for terrain such as this if the surface snow is melting more than a few inches.Â
Older wind slabs should have mostly settled and stabilized and will be removed from the avalanche problem list, but continue to look out for areas of wind stiffened snow deposited mainly near ridges on steep shaded terrain.
Early season terrain hazards still exist, such as poorly covered rocks, vegetation and creeks, particularly at lower elevations.
Snowpack Discussion
High pressure has now been over the region for a full week. Sunshine and very mild temperatures have been the story with cooler temperatures at lower elevations.
This weather has allowed for some small loose wet slides on steep solar exposed slopes, mainly isolated to the terrain below the rocks gaining additional heat. The snowpack consists mainly of surface melt freeze crusts forming overnight on solar aspects and on shaded aspects, settled and well consolidated older snow, still providing some nice skiing and riding conditions.
Stronger winds earlier in the weak may have built areas of small wind slabs but these have mostly settled and bonded.Â
The snowpack in the Hurricane Ridge area varies from 3-4 feet in most areas with some solar exposures well melted back or striped by earlier wind events.
The snowpack is well consolidated and strong with settled old storm snow of about 1-1.5 feet over the strong Thanksgiving rain crust.Â
During this high pressure pattern, surface hoar is likely to be growing in the sun and wind sheltered terrain. We need to watch for these surface snow conditions as they may have an impact on future avalanche conditions when snowfall returns.Â
Observations
The Hurricane rangers on Friday and Saturday reported few small pinwheels on solar road cuts from the past couple days, no avalanches, with settled powder lingering on north and east slopes.
NWAC Professional Observer Matt Schonwald was in the Hurricane Ridge area on Wednesday. South-facing terrain was warming significantly in due to solar warming and increasingly entraining deeper snow (up to 50-60 cm) as the day progressed. Some natural large (D2) loose wet slides were entraining enough snow to break branches on trees.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: South East, South, South West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1