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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 11th, 2016–Jan 12th, 2016
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be low
Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be low
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Glacier.

Snow is in the forecast for Wednesday.  Look for changing conditions as the week progresses.

Weather Forecast

Depending on which forecast model you choose to believe we could see upwards of 20cm of storm snow by Thursday morning.  The first 5cm should come tonight and end mid day Tuesday with a  second pulse starting late Tuesday night and through the day Wednesday.  This should be accompanied by light S-SW winds. 

Snowpack Summary

The January 4th surface hoar layer resides in the top 20-30cm of snow which consists of weak facets. On steeper S-SW aspects a breakable suncrust can be found under the 5cm of low density snow from the last few days. Below the surface weak layer is a well settled supportive snowpack.

Avalanche Summary

Three slides were observed off of the steep north facing terrain of Mt MacDonald yesterday. These slides were up to size 2. Sluffing of the weak recrystallized surface snow out of very steep terrain continued yesterday as well. Sluffing was more pronounced on steep solar facing terrain.

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Loose Dry

Sluffing of the weak facetted surface snow can be expected out of steep terrain.  This is more of a concern in locations where features concentrate the volume of sluffs such as gully features.  Use caution where sluffs have higher consequence.
Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2