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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 11th, 2017–Feb 12th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Natural avalanche activity should taper today leaving slopes primed for human triggered avalanches. Avalanches have the potential to run full path.

Weather Forecast

Mainly cloudy today with scattered flurries and no significant precip. The alpine high should be -11C with 20 km/h southwesterly winds, gusting to 55km/h. Freezing level is forecast to reach 800m today.  Similar weather is expected Sunday.  Early next week a warming trend is forecast for the area with freezing levels possibly reaching above 2000m.

Snowpack Summary

55cm of storm snow and strong S winds have formed reactive storm slabs at treeline & above. On solar aspects this slab buries a suncrust that was showing sudden planer results in snowpack tests before the storm. The storm snow will need time to settle & bond to old snow surfaces. Underneath, the mid & lwr snowpack are unusually weak and facetted

Avalanche Summary

Natural avalanche activity will taper off slightly today after a massive 2 day cycle triggered by the heavy snow and strong winds. In the last 2 day avalanches to sz 4 were observed, most running the full extent of their paths to valley bottom. In Connaught crk sz 3's were reported from Mt Cheops & Frequent Flyer path ran across the normal uptrack!

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Widespread reactive storm slabs have formed from previous heavy snowfall and strong winds overnight! If triggered they have potential to run full path. Natural avalanche activity will taper off leaving slabs primed for human triggering.
New snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.Use conservative route selection, choose moderate angled and supported terrain with low consequence.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The Jan 25th sun crust is buried down approx 60cm. Previous to the storm it was whumphing, showing easy sudden results and reactive to human triggering. If the storm slab is triggered it has the potential to step down and trigger this layer.
Watch for whumpfing, hollow sounds, and shooting cracks.If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3