Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 13th, 2014–Feb 14th, 2014

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

4: High

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable

Below Treeline

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable

Regions: Glacier.

If winds and or temperatures rise, expect the danger level to bump up to HIGH at all elevations.

Weather Forecast

The next pulse of the storm is upon us. We are expecting 15-20cm today with moderate/strong westerly winds. Temperatures have slightly warmed to -5*C in the alpine. Skies should clear overnight, then another weak front will pass through on Friday, bringing a further 10-15cm of snow with strong west winds and rising temp's. Welcome back, winter!

Snowpack Summary

25-35cm of higher density snow sits over 25-30cm of very low density snow. This has created a slightly upside-down snowpack that is very touchy, considering it all sits on a "surface hoar/crust/facet" sandwich that is easily failing in snowpack tests. The mid-pack is well-settled with a fair amount of faceting from the recent cold snap.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous natural and artillery-triggered avalanches were observed yesterday from size 2 to 3.5 at all elevations and aspects. These slides were running fast and to the end of their run-out zones. Below tree-line, natural slabs were failing on the Feb 10 surface hoar/crust/facet sandwich and propagating up to 50m across.

Confidence

Due to the number of field observations

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

The storm slab overlies a weak surface and is not bonding well. Many avalanches have already slid on this interface, but if a slope has not released, it should be considered a ticking time-bomb.

Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong inicators of unstable snowpack.Avoid paths that have not avalanched recently.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs continue to develop in lee features at alpine and tree-line elevations. There is plenty of new snow to feed the wind slab development, so if winds pick up in the area you are skiing, expect the danger level to bump up a notch.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.Minimize overhead exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3

Loose Dry

The low density fluff that sits in protected tree-line and below tree-line elevations is sluffing fast in steep terrain. Expect it to gain mass and accelerate as it moves downhill. Take care above and around terrain traps.

Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3