Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing or intensity of solar radiation is uncertain

We'll see little change in the weather pattern: valley cloud and cool temperatures down low but sunny and warm up high. SATURDAY: Sunny and warm above the valley cloud. Light wind. Freezing level near 1900 m with a colder air layer in the valleys. Alpine high temperatures near +3.SUNDAY: Cloudy with sunny breaks. Light to moderate south-west winds. Freezing level near 2500 m.MONDAY: Sunny and warm above the valley cloud. Light wind. Freezing level near 3000 m with a colder air layer in the valleys.

On the whole, there has been little recent avalanche activity reported, but a daily natural avalanche cycle is expected on steep sunny slopes. A size 3 slab failed at ground near Revelstoke on a sunny aspect at treeline recently. Check out the report here. On Tuesday, a size 3 natural avalanche was reported on a steep north-facing alpine face in the Selkirks. The failure layer is unknown, but it was likely an early season crust. There have been other old large avalanches spotted on high, north east facing slopes just below ridge crests on Youngs Peak and also Hassler Peak.

Warming temperatures will melt and weaken upper snowpack layers, particularly on steep sunny slopes. Warming also has the potential to wake up more deeply buried crust layers which formed during November's rainfall. On the whole, these crusts have been showing reasonable bonding in snowpack and slope tests. Isolated wind slabs may still be found behind ridges and ribs. Below treeline, the snowpack is shallow--look out for early season hazards like open creeks and tree stumps.