Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy with intermittent snowfall, accumulation 1-3 cm, moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature near -10 C, freezing level near 500 m.WEDNESDAY: Mostly cloudy with intermittent snowfall, accumulation 3-7 cm, moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature -6 C, freezing level near 1000 m.THURSDAY: Partly cloudy with intermittent snowfall, accumulation 2-5 cm, light to moderate southwesterly winds, alpine temperature near -10 C, freezing level near 700 m.

On Sunday, thin and soft storm and wind slabs were reactive near ridgetops on lee slopes at treeline and alpine elevation bands.  A small persistent slab avalanche was released on the early-January weak layer by an explosive, 60 cm deep at 2000 m on a westerly aspect.  Similar storm and persistent slab avalanches were reported since last Wednesday across the region.  Expect to see storm slab avalanches in lee features and persistent slab avalanches where the weak layers are preserved.

The current snowpack is complex, with three active weak layers that we are monitoring.20-50 cm of storm snow sits on a crust and/or surface hoar layer (mid-January). The crust is reportedly widespread, except for possibly at high elevations on north aspects. The surface hoar is 10 to 30 mm in size and at all elevation bands. The recent snow fell with strong south winds, producing wind slabs and cornices in lee features.  Deeper in the snowpack, a persistent weak layer known as the early-January layer is buried 50 to 80 cm, present at all elevation bands, and composed of surface hoar on sheltered slopes and sun crust on steep solar aspects. Recent snowpack tests have shown sudden fracture characters with moderate loads and high propagation potential, as well as other signs of instability such as whumpfs and cracking. Another persistent weak layer that was buried mid-December is 60 to 100 cm deep and consists of a facet/surface hoar/crust combination. It is most problematic at and below tree line.A rain crust buried in November is 100 to 150 cm deep and is likely dormant for the time being.