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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 3rd, 2016–Dec 4th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

Avalanche danger will be slowly increasing over the next 24hrs with 20cm of forecast snow and moderate winds.  If forecasted snowfall amounts do not arrive, we will likely see the danger remain at Moderate in Alpine. 

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Sunday

Weather Forecast

10cm of snow is forecast to fall overnight and an additional 5-10cm throughout the day on Sunday.  This new snow is forecast to fall under a moderate westerly wind and cooler temperatures so we are going to see avalanche danger begin to increase in Alpine areas.  We are expecting new slabs to build throughout the day. 

Avalanche Summary

No new natural avalanche activity was observed.

Snowpack Summary

30-50cm of snow is overlying the November 12th Melt freeze crust which is being found up to 2500m on all aspects.  So far, field tests are showing that overlying snow is bonding to this crust fairly well.  This may change as more load is applied to the crust.  In alpine area in immediate lees, pockets of pencil hard windslab are being encountered up to 20cm thick.  These slabs do not extend far downslope, but they are certainly in the realm of being triggerred by a skier. 

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

New storm slabs will be building throughout the day on Sunday with the new snow and forecasted westerly winds.
Avoid freshly wind loaded features.The recent snow may now be hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Wind Slabs

Isolated pockets of windslabs in alpine areas on northern aspects. These slabs are up to 20cm thick, pencil hard but do not extend far downslope.
Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.The recent snow may now be hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2