Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 13th, 2015 3:00PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Loose Wet, Storm Slabs and Deep Persistent Slabs.

matt.mueller, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

Conflicting forecasts are making it difficult to nail down the hazard. Be prepared to field forecast and predict if the local hazard will spike. A HIGH rating at any elevation band isn't out of the question if precip amounts vary.

Summary

Confidence

Poor - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

The winds will make another appearance tonight as a warm front arrives. Overnight gusts will hit 80km/hr from the SW. Overnight temps will be -2 at 2500m with a freezing level of 1600m. Forecasts vary slightly, but we should be prepared to see the warm front potentially arrive tomorrow with rain/wet flurries/snow and even stronger winds (100km+ at 2500m). 11cm's is expected at higher elevations. The freezing level will spike to 2300m.

Avalanche Summary

No activity today

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack was able to make it most of the because of last night's marginal re-freeze and the cloudy skies today. Pretty much the same situation as yesterday's discussion: below treeline is isothermal by mid afternoon with a surface re-freeze overnight. Treeline is a bit more aspect dependant in regards to the surface conditions. Solar aspects have a significant crust while polar aspects have a lighter temperature crust. The alpine is still a winter snowpack with thin crusts on solar aspects and hard wind slabs on most other aspects.

Problems

Loose Wet

Saturated snow will be a concern at lower elevations. Avoid exposure to gully features.

Be very cautious with gully features.>Choose ice climbs that are not exposed to avalanches from above.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Storm Slabs

The snow at higher elevations will form windslabs very easily. Watch for freshly loaded features and keep an eye out for a "cakey" snow texture within the storm snow.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Avoid lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

New snow and/or rain load may be enough to wake this layer up again. Avoid any exposure to large overhead terrain if the forecast holds true. New, weak cornices are something to think about as a potential trigger.

Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind, or rain.>Avoid convexities or areas with a thin or variable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Valid until: Mar 14th, 2015 2:00PM