Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 10th, 2017 3:17PM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is moderate. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Deep Persistent Slabs and Cornices.

mike.koppang, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

A large (sz 3.5) natural avalanche on Mt Murray that ran full path on Friday is a good reminder of the weak facetted base and the potential for large avalanches. Keep a keen eye on overhead terrain.

Summary

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

A few cm of new snow is forecast to fall overnight and throughout the day on Saturday. Temperatures will warm up to -10C but as temperature increase so will the winds. Forecast are calling for moderate westerly winds at 3000m on Saturday.

Avalanche Summary

The new snow over the past 24hrs is sluffing easily in steeper terrain and a few new sz 2 natural avalanches from steep alpine terrain were observed. There was also a noteable sz 3.5 avalanche on Mt Murray with a fracture line over 700m wide, a max depth of 2m and ran over 800m to the valley floor reaching mature timber. This is a good red flag about paths that have not yet released.

Snowpack Summary

10-15cm low density new snow over the past 24hrs. Evidence of moderate winds at upper elevations but TL and lower no wind affect noted. Wind slabs in Alpine terrain are beginning to settle but the weak basal layers and recent large avalanches are causing us to be reluctant to step into bigger alpine terrain.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Lee and cross loaded features are especially loaded and look primed for human triggering.

If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Possible - Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Evidence of recent avalanches stepping down to this layer and running full path.

Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 4

Cornices

Several cornice failures over the past week have triggered deep and large avalanches.

Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger persistent slabs.Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 3

Valid until: Mar 11th, 2017 2:00PM