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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 10th, 2017–Mar 11th, 2017
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Kananaskis.

A large (sz 3.5) natural avalanche on Mt Murray that ran full path on Friday is a good reminder of the weak facetted base and the potential for large avalanches.  Keep a keen eye on overhead terrain.

Confidence

High -

Weather Forecast

A few cm of new snow is forecast to fall overnight and throughout the day on Saturday. Temperatures will warm up to -10C but as temperature increase so will the winds.  Forecast are calling for moderate westerly winds at 3000m on Saturday.

Avalanche Summary

The new snow over the past 24hrs is sluffing easily in steeper terrain and a few new sz 2 natural avalanches from steep alpine terrain were observed.  There was also a noteable sz 3.5 avalanche on Mt Murray with a  fracture line over 700m wide, a max depth of 2m and ran over 800m to the valley floor reaching mature timber. This is a good red flag about paths that have not yet released.

Snowpack Summary

10-15cm low density new snow over the past 24hrs.  Evidence of moderate winds at upper elevations but TL and lower no wind affect noted. Wind slabs in Alpine terrain are beginning to settle but the weak basal layers and recent large avalanches are causing us to be reluctant to step into bigger alpine terrain. 

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Lee and cross loaded features are especially loaded and look primed for human triggering.
If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Deep Persistent Slabs

Evidence of recent avalanches stepping down to this layer and running full path.
Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger the deep persistent slab.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 4

Cornices

Several cornice failures over the past week have triggered deep and large avalanches.
Pay attention to overhead hazards like cornices which could easily trigger persistent slabs.Minimize exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach run out zones.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 2 - 3