Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Mar 3rd, 2016 7:28AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is moderate, and the below treeline rating is low. Known problems include Wind Slabs, Persistent Slabs and Loose Dry.

jeremy.mackenzie, Alberta Parks

Kananaskis.

The Jan 6th interface has produced a few significant avalanches in the past few days, both naturally triggered and human triggered. Carefully evaluate the snowpack before committing to a line.

Summary

Confidence

High

Weather Forecast

Friday will be mainly cloudy with no precipitation. Alpine temperatures should reach a high of -4 °C. Ridge-top winds will be out of the southwest at 35-55 km/h. Freezing levels will reach 1700 metres. Saturday will bring flurries with light accumulations.

Avalanche Summary

Numerous naturally triggered loose dry up to size 2.0 from steep E and NE aspects in the Alpine.

Snowpack Summary

2 to 5cm of new snow in the past 24 hours. Cornice growth observed over the past 48hrs. Surface snow moist on solar aspects and on all aspects below 1900m. 15 to 30cm now overlies the Feb 27th interface and the bond at this interface is variable. Jan 6th interface found down 60 to 110cm producing sudden shears in the moderate to hard range. Several snow pits today revealed a consistent lack of basal depth hoar.

Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind slabs 15 and 30cm thick are present in lee and cross-loaded features. These slabs sit on the Feb 27th interface which is a crust in many locations. Snowpack tests are variable at this interface.

Dig down to find and test weak layers before committing to a line.>Caution in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Possible

Expected Size

1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

The Jan 6th interface (buried 60 to 110cm) is giving variable test results in snowpack stability tests. This problem has a low probability of triggering, but has high consequences. Forecasters triggered a size 2.5 avalanche on this layer yesterday.

Be aware of the potential for full depth avalanches due to deeply buried weak layers.>Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size

2 - 5

Loose Dry

Sluffing is occurring on lee slopes in the Alpine and Treeline.

Be cautious of sluffing in steep terrain.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Mar 4th, 2016 2:00PM