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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 17th, 2018–Dec 20th, 2018
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
Below Threshold
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be below threshold

Regions: Waterton Lakes.

Another storm is set to hit us on Tuesday. This may be the tipping point that overloads weak layers on the bottom of the snowpack.

Weather Forecast

Tuesday: Periods of snow beginning Monday night with 16 cm of accumulation along the divide accompanied by strong west winds. Freezing levels Staying near 1600m.Wednesday: Cloudy with scattered flurries. Moderate SW winds. Freezing level 1400mThursday: Cloudy with sunny periods. Moderate SW winds Freezing levels returning to 1600m

Snowpack Summary

The snowpack in Waterton is highly variable, but you can count on a weaker structure along the divide where 20-30cm of recent storm snow has formed windslabs on lee (east) slopes which are sitting on a weak snowpack consisting of facets and crusts.

Avalanche Summary

Natural and human triggered avalanche activity has tapered off, with no new avalanches observed in the region. Warm weather has caused pinwheeling on Solar aspects.

Confidence

Freezing levels are uncertain on Thursday

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Old windslabs to be bonding well to old surfaces thanks to warm temperatures, but a new set will be forming with the incoming storm on Tuesday.
If triggered the wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in larger avalanches.

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Deep Persistent Slabs

New snow will increase the load on deep weak layers. We may see the same kind of cycle that our norther neighbours saw last week.
Be aware of thin areas that may propogate to deeper instabilites.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5