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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 16th, 2019–Mar 17th, 2019
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be considerable
Alpine
4: High
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be high
Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be high
Below Treeline
4: High
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be high

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Warming is coming! This significant change will weaken the snowpack. Forecasting the timing of changes over the next several days is difficult. However, it's easy to see it's time to reign in your terrain choices and stay clear of overhead hazards.

Confidence

Moderate -

Weather Forecast

A significant warm-up is happening and next week looks to be very warm with freezing level approaching 3000 m. Don't let overnight cooling in the valley fool you, very little overnight cooling at mountain elevations is expected.SATURDAY NIGHT: Overcast, dry, moderate southwest wind, little overnight cooling with freezing level staying around 1200 m. SUNDAY: Broken cloud cover, moderate southwest wind, freezing level around 2100 to 2400m with no overnight freeze.MONDAY: Sunshine, light south wind, freezing level as high as 3200m with no overnight freeze.TUESDAY: Sunshine, light southeast wind, continued high freezing level with no overnight freeze.

Avalanche Summary

There are few observers in the field this week but reports showed a natural avalanche cycle of storm and wind slabs up to size 2 early in the week and loose wet avalanches with afternoon warming.

Snowpack Summary

Up to 60 cm of upside down (higher density on top) storm snow has accumulated since Monday. This recent snow rests on previously wind affected surfaces, sun crusts (on solar aspects) and weak, sugary facets. The prolonged period of cold temperatures in February has had an overall effect of weakening the upper and mid-snowpack, as well as the basal snowpack in thinner areas.In the south of the region the lower snowpack is generally strong.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Slabs may be particularly touchy where they rest on weak faceted snow. Sunshine and warm temperatures will weaken the snow on sunny slopes.
Parking, eating lunch, and regrouping in runout zones is bad practice.Minimize exposure to steep, sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.Continue to make conservative terrain choices and avoid overhead hazards, including cornices.

Aspects: North, North East, South East, South, South West, North West.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2.5

Persistent Slabs

Previous weaknesses may reactivate with forecast sunshine and warming. There are numerous reports of remotely triggered avalanches from neighbouring areas (see Northwest Coastal) which appear relevant to Northwest Inland conditions.
Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent slopes.If triggered the storm/wind slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3