Avalanche Forecast
Issued: Feb 19th, 2022 4:00PM
The alpine rating is , the treeline rating is , and the below treeline rating is Known problems include Storm Slabs and Loose Dry.
Mark Herbison,
The fresh snow is a welcome sight to see, but the resulting storm slabs may be sensitive to human triggering. Assess the snowpack carefully before committing to your line.
Summary
Weather Forecast
Flurries are expected throughout the day on Sunday with accumulations up to 5cm. The freezing level will remain at valley bottom with an alpine high of -10. Ridge top winds will be 10-20km/hr from the North as the Arctic Polar Plunge moves into our region, gradually dropping temps into the -20's again for a few days. Clearing skies by Tuesday.
Snowpack Summary
The accumulating storm snow (~50cm) buried small surface hoar (Feb 15 SH 2-8mm) in sheltered areas below tree line, a crust on steep solar slopes and firm wind affected surfaces in the alpine. The Jan 29 surface hoar is down 70-120cm and is breaking down. Wind affected snow in the alpine and down into tree line.
Avalanche Summary
On Saturday, natural avalanche activity was observed up to size 3.0 and artillery controlled avalanche results up to size 3.5. Cheops North 4 was reported to be down into the creek, sz 2.5-3.0.
Numerous human triggered storm slab avalanches on Friday up to size 1.5.
Confidence
Problems
Storm Slabs
~50cm of recent snow, moderate to strong SW winds and warm temps have formed storm slabs, which bury the Feb 15 surface hoar (2-8mm) and a crust on steep solar aspects. The slabs may be sensitive to human triggering.
- Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and tree line. Storm snow has formed reactive slabs.
- If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Loose Dry
Anticipate dry loose avalanches out of steep sheltered terrain. Watch your sluff and manage your group appropriately.
- Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
- Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood
Expected Size
Valid until: Feb 20th, 2022 4:00PM
