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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Feb 19th, 2022–Feb 20th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

The fresh snow is a welcome sight to see, but the resulting storm slabs may be sensitive to human triggering. Assess the snowpack carefully before committing to your line.

Weather Forecast

Flurries are expected throughout the day on Sunday with accumulations up to 5cm. The freezing level will remain at valley bottom with an alpine high of -10. Ridge top winds will be 10-20km/hr from the North as the Arctic Polar Plunge moves into our region, gradually dropping temps into the -20's again for a few days. Clearing skies by Tuesday.

Snowpack Summary

The accumulating storm snow (~50cm) buried small surface hoar (Feb 15 SH 2-8mm) in sheltered areas below tree line, a crust on steep solar slopes and firm wind affected surfaces in the alpine. The Jan 29 surface hoar is down 70-120cm and is breaking down. Wind affected snow in the alpine and down into tree line.

Avalanche Summary

On Saturday, natural avalanche activity was observed up to size 3.0 and artillery controlled avalanche results up to size 3.5. Cheops North 4 was reported to be down into the creek, sz 2.5-3.0.

Numerous human triggered storm slab avalanches on Friday up to size 1.5.

Confidence

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

~50cm of recent snow, moderate to strong SW winds and warm temps have formed storm slabs, which bury the Feb 15 surface hoar (2-8mm) and a crust on steep solar aspects. The slabs may be sensitive to human triggering.

  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and tree line. Storm snow has formed reactive slabs.
  • If triggered the storm slabs may step down to deeper layers resulting in large avalanches.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 3

Loose Dry

Anticipate dry loose avalanches out of steep sheltered terrain. Watch your sluff and manage your group appropriately.

  • Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
  • Be aware of party members below you that may be exposed to your sluffs.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2