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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 16th, 2022–Mar 17th, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Glacier.

Storm slabs have been sensitive to human and natural triggering the last few days. Ongoing snow and wind will keep building on this problem, making it slow to settle and stabilize.

Weather Forecast

Cloudy, flurries, and freezing levels hovering around 1500m the next few days.

Tonight: Mainly cloudy, Alpine low -8*C, moderate SW ridgetop wind

Thurs: Flurries (7cm), high -5*C, freezing level (FZL) 1500m, moderate SW wind

Fri: Flurries (6cm), low -7*C, high -5*C, FZL 1500m, mod SW wind

Sat: Cloudy, low -6*C, high -3*C, FZL 1600m

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow continues to pile up (40-60cm of settled snow since Mar 11th), with moderate SW wind loading up lee aspects. Solar aspects now have several suncrusts buried in the upper snowpack. On shaded aspects there are several layers of small surface hoar in the upper and mid snowpack; March 7 (down ~70cm); Feb 26 (down 90cm); and Feb 15 (down >1m)

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday.

Several size 2-3 natural storm slabs occurred above the highway, and we had reports of naturals up to size 3 in the Illecillewaet valley.

A field team triggered a few size 1.0 storm slabs, failing on the Mar 11th suncrust on steep supported rolls below treeline.

Avalanche control produced size 2-3 avalanches in recently controlled terrain

Confidence

Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Mild temps, steady flurries, and mod SW winds have formed storm slabs at all elevations.

Be wary of convex rolls, ridge crests, and open cross-loaded slopes where these may be easier to trigger.

  • Use caution in lee areas in the alpine and treeline. Storm snow is forming touchy slabs.
  • The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Loose Dry

In steep sheltered terrain, human-triggered sluffs are running within the storm snow, gathering mass as they accelerate down slope.

  • Avoid terrain traps, such as gullies, where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.
  • On steep slopes, pull over periodically or cut into a new line to manage sluffing.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 2