Avalanche Forecast

High - We have a good understanding of the snowpack structure and confidence in the weather forecast

Saturday Night: Cloudy. 0-2 cm of snow expected. Moderate south ridgetop wind, trending to strong southwest at higher elevations. Alpine temperature around -7 °C.

Sunday: Cloudy. Around 2 cm of snow expected. Moderate southwest ridgetop winds, trending to strong at higher elevations. Freezing levels rising to 1000 m in the southern half of the region. Alpine high around -4 °C.

Monday: Partly cloudy. Light flurries. Light to moderate southeast ridgetop winds. Freezing level at valley bottom in the morning, rising to 1000 m in the southern half of the region. 

Tuesday: Mostly cloudy. Light flurries. Moderate southwest ridgetop winds trending to strong at higher elevations. Freezing level at valley bottom in the morning, rising to 1200 m in the southern half of the region. 

No new avalanches were reported before 4 pm on Saturday.

On Friday, in the Seaton area, a group reported firm, wind effected snow in the alpine, and small loose wet avalanches on steep slopes exposed to the sun. See their Mountain Information Network (MIN) post here for a summary of the conditions in the area.

Also, an AST 2 course reported that windslabs were reactive to rider traffic on NE-E aspects in the alpine. They used ski cuts on small, safe test slopes to check the bond of the windslabs to the old surface. They also had a skier triggered avalanche reported to them from a 3rd party. It was on a cross loaded feature in Cardiac bowl. See their MIN post here for more information. 

On Thursday, the same AST 2 course directly observed a size 1.5 natural windslab avalanche in the Miller Creek area near Hudson Bay Mountain. It occured on an east aspect in the alpine, just below a cornice. See their Mountain Information Network (MIN) post here for more information.

Light flurries continue. Moderate to strong south through southwest ridgetop winds are redistributing the new snow snow, and 10-20 cm of recent, low density snow. Expect small, reactive windslabs to form on lee slopes over a variety of old, generally wind effected surfaces. In sheltered areas, this new snow could be falling on surface hoar up to 15 mm, so we'll be keeping an eye on this potential weak layer as the snow load above it increases.

20-50 cm from the snow surface is a 10-20 cm thick rain crust that was buried mid february, which effectively caps the underlying snowpack, making human triggering of avalanches on weak layers deeper in the snowpack unlikely, but this crust has been breaking down in some locations, with faceting observed above and below it. Large loads like big chunks of falling cornice may now be able to trigger weak layers below the crust.

• Fresh wind slabs will likely form throughout the day, diligently watch for changing conditions.
• Back off if you encounter whumpfing, hollow sounds, or shooting cracks.
• Watch for wind-loaded pockets especially around ridgecrest and in extreme terrain.
• Highmark or enter your line well below ridge crests to avoid wind loaded pillows.
• Use caution above cliffs and terrain traps where even small avalanches may have severe consequences.