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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 1st, 2022–Jan 2nd, 2022
Alpine
3: Considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
Below Treeline
3: Considerable
Alpine
3: Considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate

Regions: North Rockies.

Touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers are expected to form Saturday night at all elevations.

Make conservative terrain choices and look for signs of instability such as whumpfing, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches. 

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain.

Weather Forecast

SATURDAY NIGHT: Snow; 10-25 cm / Strong southwest wind / Low of -15

SUNDAY: Cloudy with flurries; 3-10 cm and another 10-15 cm overnight / Strong southwest wind / High of -18

MONDAY: Cloudy with isolated flurries; 0-5 cm / Light southeast wind / High of -29

TUESDAY: Mostly cloudy / Light south wind / High of -29

Avalanche Summary

Touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers are expected to form Saturday night at all elevations and aspects.

Snowpack Summary

10-20 cm of snow and strong southwesterly winds on Saturday formed touchy storm slabs sitting on weak facets (sugary snow). An additional 10-25 cm of snow and continued strong winds Saturday will increase the size and reactivity of the freshly formed storm slabs; especially in wind affected terrain.

A weak layer of feathery surface hoar may be found around 20 to 50 cm deep. It is most likely found in sheltered terrain features in the lower alpine and treeline, or open features below treeline (e.g., cut blocks). We've only received a few reports of this layer, so it may be spotty in the region.

The middle of the snowpack has been reported as well-settled and strong. The base of the snowpack is composed of weak faceted grains, particularly in thin snowpack areas east of the divide, but has not recently been a primary concern.

Terrain and Travel

  • Look for signs of instability: whumphing, hollow sounds, shooting cracks, and recent avalanches.
  • Keep your guard up at lower elevations. Storms slabs have been reactive at all elevations.
  • Use small low consequence slopes to test the bond of the new snow.
  • The best and safest riding will be on slopes that have soft snow without any slab properties.
  • Storm slabs in motion may step down to deeply buried weak layers resulting in very large avalanches.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Touchy storm slabs reactive to human triggers are expected to form Saturday night at all elevations and aspects.

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Likely - Very Likely

Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5