Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the fact that persistent slabs are particularly difficult to forecast.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT: Cloudy, up to 3 cm new snow, light to moderate southwest wind, alpine temperature 0 C, freezing level 2000 m.

THURSDAY: Mix of sun and cloud, trace of new snow, moderate west wind, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level slowly dropping to 1600 m. 

FRIDAY: Sunny, trace of new snow, light to moderate northwest wind, alpine temperature -7 C, freezing level 1000 m.

SATURDAY: Sunny, light northwest wind, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level 1200 m.

On Tuesday, humans triggered numerous slabs up to size 1.5 and one large size 2.5 on the buried weak layer with surface hoar. One was triggered from a distance away. Explosives triggered large slab avalanches up to size 2.5 on the buried weak layer.

On Monday, skiers triggered slabs on the buried weak layer about 60-80 cm deep. Large wind slab avalanches up to size 3 released naturally. Explosives triggered wet loose avalanches up to size 2. 

On Sunday, several avalanches released on the buried weak layer with surface hoar crystals and surprised riders. A few large avalanches (up to size 2.5) released naturally on that same layer. Check out some good example photos here. Small storm slab avalanches were reported on east and southeast facing slopes. Numerous loose wet and loose dry avalanches were triggered by the sun on steep slopes and reached large sizes. A deep persistent slab avalanche was likely triggered naturally by intense warming and sun and released on depth hoar or the November crust. It occurred just north of the region (see this MIN report). 

The recent storm brought 20 to 40 cm with locally higher amounts. The snow has formed wind slabs in exposed terrain in the alpine and at treeline from strong and extreme south to southwest wind. A sun crust formed on sun-exposed slopes at all elevations. 

The snow loaded a weak layer of surface hoar crystals 5 to 15 mm in size. The layer may be around 60 to 100 cm deep, which is a prime depth for human triggering. The layer is most prominent in areas sheltered from the wind. Example terrain features to treat as suspect include the lee side of protected ridges, openings in the trees, cut blocks, and burns. The layer may not exist on steep sun-exposed slopes, where a melt-freeze crust may be found instead.

The facet/crust layer that formed in early December is buried around 120 to 250 cm. The last reported avalanche was on January 31 from a large explosive, and before that on January 23. Although unlikely, the layer could be triggered from a large load like a cornice fall or a shallower slab avalanche could step down to this layer. Humans are unlikely to trigger it, with perhaps the exception in thin, shallow snowpack areas. Check out the forecaster blog for more information.

• Avoid steep slopes when air temperatures are warm, or solar radiation is strong.
• Be aware of the potential for large avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.
• Shooting cracks, whumphs and recent avalanches are strong indicators of an unstable snowpack.
• Uncertainty is best managed through conservative terrain choices at this time.