Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to how quickly the snowpack will recover and gain strength.

Sunday night: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow, strong winds shift from southwest to northwest, treeline low temperature near -5 C, freezing level drops to 500 m.

Monday: Decreasing cloudiness, isolated flurries with trace accumulations, northwest winds easing to moderate, treeline high temperatures near -3 C, freezing level rising to 700 m. 

Tuesday: Sunny, no precipitation expected, light northwest winds, treeline high temperatures near -4 C, freezing level near 500 m.

Wednesday: Cloudy, moderate west winds, treeline high temperatures near -6 C, freezing level around 100 m. 

On Sunday, observers reported natural avalanches releasing in the storm snow near Tim Jones Peak. Avalanches in the recent snow remain possible to trigger on Monday. 

Reports from the region are limited. If you head out into the mountains, please share any observations or photos on the Mountain Information Network.

On Sunday, the mountains picked up 25-45 cm of new snow, and an additional 5-15 cm may accumulate by Monday morning. The new snow has formed a reactive storm slab problem that may require more time to bond to the previous hard crust (see this video of the crust from Friday). Given that there are few observations from areas outside of the North Shore, there is uncertainty as to whether a layer of surface hoar may be preserved above the crust in areas further north and east in the region. Start simple and closely monitor the bond of the new snow to the crust. Stay alert to changing conditions as you gain elevation. 

Strong southwest winds are forecast to shift to northwest overnight. Anticipate more reactive and larger slabs as you move into wind-exposed terrain on a variety of aspects. These slabs will be most reactive during their formation.

Below the recent snow, a thick and supportive crust extends to mountain top. The middle and base of the snowpack are well settled and strong. In isolated areas north in the region, a layer of faceted grains on a crust may be found 150-200 cm deep; however, observations suggest that this layer has become unreactive. 

• Continue to make conservative terrain choices while the storm snow settles and stabilizes.
• Closely monitor how the new snow is bonding to the crust.
• Expect slab conditions to change drastically as you move into wind exposed terrain.
• Seek out sheltered terrain where new snow hasn't been wind-affected.