Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Dogtooth, East Purcell, Purcells.
⚠️ Avoid All avalanche terrain ⚠️Soaring freezing levels and solar radiation will result in a widespread natural avalanche cycle on Sunday.
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Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
Numerous naturally triggered wet loose avalanches up to size 2.5 and persistent slab avalanches up to size 3 (very large) were reported on all aspects at treeline and above on Friday.
Very large, natural avalanches are expected to continue to occur on Sunday.
Snowpack Summary
High freezing levels overnight will result in no overnight re-freeze of the snow surface. As a result, the avalanche danger will rise rapidly throughout the day.
A widespread crust is buried roughly 80-120 cm deep. Weak faceted crystals and surface hoar above this crust are contributing to large avalanches across the province and continue to be the primary layer of concern here.
The basal snowpack is generally weak and faceted, with the potential to produce very large avalanches with the forecast of prolonged warming.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Clear skies. 10 km/h north ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 7 °C. Freezing level 3000 m.
Sunday
Sunny. 10 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 8 °C. Freezing level 3000 m.
Monday
Sunny. 10 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 8 °C. Freezing level 3000 m.
Tuesday
Sunny. 10 km/h west ridgetop wind. Treeline temperature 6 °C. Freezing level 2700 m.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Avoid all avalanche terrain during periods of intense solar radiation.
- Only the most simple non-avalanche terrain free of overhead hazard is appropriate at this time.
- Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches to run full path or even longer.
- The likelihood of deep persistent slab avalanches will increase with each day of warm weather.
- Cornice failure may trigger large avalanches.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
A crust with weak facets overtop is down 80 to 150 cm. Very large natural and human triggered avalanches occurring on this layer are very likely on Sunday.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 4
Deep Persistent Slabs
A widespread weak layer exists at the bottom of the snowpack. Large triggers, such as falling cornices or smaller avalanches in motion may have the potential to trigger this deeply buried weak layer.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 3 - 4
Loose Wet
If triggered loose wet avalanches may step down to deeper layers, resulting in very large avalanches.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Very Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5