Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Dogtooth, East Purcell, Purcells.
Buried weak layers remain the primary concern, capable of producing large avalanches.
Evaluate terrain carefully and minimize exposure to high-consequence slopes.
Confidence
Moderate
Avalanche Summary
On Friday several size 2 persistent slabs were reported, both natural and human triggered - remotely from 100 m away, indicating weak layers remain sensitive.
Natural and explosive-triggered persistent slab avalanches have been reported (size 2 to 3.5) this week. While fewer human triggered avalanches have been reported, if triggered a large and destructive avalanche remains likely as shown by this remotely triggered avalanche near Golden on Thursday.
Snowpack Summary
Surface conditions currently include sun crusts on south facing slopes, lightly wind-affected snow, and settling snow.
A widespread crust that formed in early February is roughly 80-120 cm deep. Weak faceted crystals and surface hoar above this crust are contributing to large avalanches across the province.
Additionally, the lower snowpack is mostly made up of weak and faceted layers.
Weather Summary
Saturday Night
Increasing cloud. 20-40 km/h south ridgetop wind. Freezing levels rise drop to 800 m. Isolated flurries possible overnight.
Sunday
Mostly cloudy with 1-5 cm of snow. 20-40 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing levels rise to 1500 m by the afternoon. Treeline temperature -4 °C.
Monday
Mostly cloudy with flurries. 20-30 km/h southwest ridgetop wind. Freezing levels rise to 1500 m by the afternoon. Treeline temperature -4 °C.
Tuesday
Mostly cloudy. 10 km/h south ridgetop wind. Freezing levels rise to 1500 m by the afternoon. Treeline temperature -4 °C.
More details can be found in the Mountain Weather Forecast.
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Conservative terrain selection is critical, choose only well supported, low consequence lines.
- Remote triggering is a concern, watch out for adjacent and overhead slopes.
- Be aware of the potential for large, destructive avalanches due to the presence of deeply buried weak layers.
Avalanche Problems
Persistent Slabs
Avoid areas where the snowpack thins, like steep, rocky start zones at treeline and alpine elevations. Weak layers are more easily triggered here.
Stick to simple terrain features to minimize exposure to this problem.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 2 - 3.5
Wind Slabs
Winds have picked up and loose snow is available to build fresh and reactive wind slabs. Small wind slabs could step down to deeper weak layers producing very large avalanches.
Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 1.5