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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 13th, 2016–Jan 14th, 2016
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Purcells.

Forecast new snow and wind are expected to continue to develop storm slabs at all elevations. Pockets of wind transported snow may be deep and easily triggered.

Confidence

Moderate - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

Weather Forecast

Light snow (3-5 cm) is forecast overnight with moderate westerly winds and freezing levels dropping down to valley bottoms. Some flurries continuing on Thursday with moderate northwest winds and valleys temperatures rising up to about +1.0 celcius. Cloud continuing on Friday with moderate northwest winds and temperatures around -10 in the alpine. Increasing southwest winds on Saturday with increased cloud and some flurries or light snow.

Avalanche Summary

On Tuesday a couple of reports of slab avalanches size 1.0 were reported from alpine elevations. One of these slabs was remotely triggered from six metres away.

Snowpack Summary

Another 5 cm of new snow overnight makes the recent storm snow total about 10-15 cm above a variety of weak surfaces including surface hoar and facets. The upper snowpack is generally loose and unconsolidated due to the current lack of slab properties, however there is now 30-40 cm sitting on a mix of surface hoar, facets, and sun crusts that were buried January 4th. Some operations continue to track buried surface hoar from early December. While test results on deeply buried surface hoar continue to show planar results when hard forces are applied, there have not been any avalanches reported failing on this layer. I have removed the persistent weak layer problem from the front page, and we will continue to monitor reports from operators in this region. The mid and lower snowpack is generally well settled and strong.

Avalanche Problems

Storm Slabs

Forecast new snow and wind continue to develop storm slabs at all elevations. Pockets of wind transported snow may be deep and easily triggered where they are sitting on buried weak layers of surface hoar or facets.
Minimize exposure during periods of heavy loading from new snow, wind.>The new snow will require several days to settle and stabilize.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Possible - Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 4