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Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Dec 31st, 2012–Jan 1st, 2013
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate
Alpine
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable
Treeline
3: Considerable
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be considerable
Below Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be moderate

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Have a safe and fun new year! 

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

Monday night and Tuesday: The weak frontal systems weakens out and gives place to dryer conditions and moderate Westerly winds switching from the South on Tuesday. Broken cloud cover is expected. Temperatures are expected to be quite mild in the alpine afternoon due to an inversion (above freezing levels between 1100 m. and 2200 m.)  Wednesday: A new frontal system is arriving which could give considerable amounts of precipitation on the Northern part of the region (in the 20-25 cm range) with strong SW winds. Thursday: More moderate precipitation is expected to continue and looks like winds would slow down and temperatures warm up slightly.

Avalanche Summary

No new avalanches were observed recently.

Snowpack Summary

New wind slabs are suspected to be touchy on lee side of ridges in the alpine and at treeline, especially on solar aspects in the inversion altitude band. In sheltered areas, the new snow could hide older windslabs. The mid-pack is generally well settled. In sheltered areas and below treeline, 30 cm of low density snow overlies a stiffer base. Near the base of the snowpack, a crust/facet layer is still lingering but we have no recent information about its reactivity. I suspect that this weakness is unlikely to be triggered by a single person, but that it would remain possible with a very heavy load (e.g. cornice fall) or from a thin-spot trigger point.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New windslabs exist and older buried wind slabs lie in the alpine and at treeline. Be aware that warm temperatures and sun radiation could act as a trigger in the afternoon on solar aspects.
Be aware of the potential for wide propagations due to the presence of hard windslabs.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 5