Avalanche Forecast

Moderate - Due to the number of field observations on Tuesday

A series of relatively weak Pacific moisture systems will impact the region over the forecast period. On Wednesday and Friday expect 5-10cm of moist snow each day while only trace amounts are expected on Thursday. Freezing levels should drop gradually from 1800m on Wednesday to about 1000m by Friday. Ridgetop winds should remain mainly moderate to strong from the southwest.

A widespread natural avalanche cycle to size 3 took place on Monday in response to recent storm loading and then rain. Avalanche types observed were loose wet, wet slabs, storm slabs and persistent slabs. I'm sure more of the same was observed on Tuesday with rising freezing levels and localized solar radiation. Cooling with help reduce avalanche activity; however, the forecast cooling trend is so gradual it's tough to say exactly when or to what extent.

On Sunday a warm, wet and windy storm added mass and reactivity to recently formed storm slabs. 24 hour snow totals were around 40cm in the Terrace area with closer to 70cm falling in the mountains around Stewart. Rain on Monday, and then rising freezing levels and solar radiation on Tuesday have likely left most surfaces moist or wet. This warming has had a significant destabilizing effect on the snowpack. The January 9th surface hoar/facet layer is down 70-200 cm and remains a concern, especially with heavy and/or thin-spot triggers. Around the same depth you may also find a surface hoar/facet interface from around New Years. There continues to be a lot of uncertainty regarding the reactivity and distribution of this destructive persistent avalanche problem; however, warm temperatures have increased the likelihood of triggering these layers where they still exist. A very conservative approach to mountain travel is still required.