Avalanche Forecast

Issued: Feb 24th, 2014 7:30AM

The alpine rating is considerable, the treeline rating is considerable, and the below treeline rating is considerable. Known problems include Persistent Slabs, Wind Slabs and Loose Wet.

Peter, Avalanche Canada

South Coast.

Don't let blue skies and fresh snow lure you into big terrain! A buried persistent weak layer is still lurking and could wake up with forecast sunshine and rapidly rising temperatures.

Summary

Confidence

Fair

Weather Forecast

Synopsis: A building upper ridge of high pressure will result in drier conditions and more sunshine for the next several days. Temperatures will also increase dramatically by Tuesday. Tuesday: A mix of sun and cloud. The freezing level is around 1200 m. Winds are light and variable. Wednesday: A mix of sun and cloud. An above freezing layer is possible between 1500 and 2300 m. Winds are light and variable.Thursday: Cloudy with sunny breaks and a chance of light precipitation. The freezing level is near 1800 m.

Avalanche Summary

There was one new report of a remotely triggered thin wind slab from a SW aspect at treeline on Saturday. A couple natural avalanches were also observed in the Steep Creek area off the Duffey Lake road on Friday. One of these appeared to release on relatively low angle terrain (30 degrees) and propagated very far. These likely released on the mid February persistent weakness. Check out Wayne Flann's Avalanche blog for photos.

Snowpack Summary

10-30 cm of cold low density new snow has fallen in the past couple days, accompanied by light to moderate W-NW winds. Older dense wind slabs may be lightly buried on a variety of aspects and in cross-loaded terrain features. In the southern portion of the region up to 200 cm of settled storm snow sits on a crust/facet combination buried in mid February. In northern sections this weakness includes surface hoar and is generally down 60-100 cm. Recent snowpack tests indicate that this weak layer may be gaining strength, but professionals remain suspect. The mid and lower snowpack are generally strong and well-settled. However, basal facets and depth hoar are likely to exist in the north of the region and still deserve respect on thin rocky alpine slopes.

Problems

Persistent Slabs

Strong solar radiation and warming temperatures will likely increase the probability of avalanches running on the mid February persistent weak layer, which is now down 80-150 cm.

Stick to simple terrain and be aware of what is above you at all times.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches due to the presence of buried surface hoar.>Whumpfing, shooting cracks and recent avalanches are all strong indicators of unstable snowpack.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

2 - 6

Wind Slabs

Thin new wind slabs have formed in exposed lee and cross-loaded terrain and could be triggered by the weight of a rider.

The recent snow may now be hiding windslabs that were easily visible before the snow fell.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Loose Wet

A loose wet avalanche could drag you somewhere you don't want to end up, but could also be enough mass to trigger a large slab avalanche.

Minimize exposure to sun exposed slopes when the solar radiation is strong.>Avoid exposure to terrain traps where the consequences of a small avalanche could be serious.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood

Likely

Expected Size

1 - 3

Valid until: Feb 25th, 2014 2:00PM