Avalanche Forecast

Fair - Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain

A warm front will bring precipitation and rising freezing levels to the South Coast on Tuesday. The north of the region is expected to see 10-15mm of precipitation whereas the south may see 20-30mm. Freezing levels are expected to reach between 1600 and 1800m and alpine winds should be strong from the SW. On Wednesday, light precipitation is expected to continue (3-6mm) with freezing levels dropping to around 1000m and winds easing to light in the alpine. Christmas day looks to be mostly sunny with freezing levels around 700m and light NW wind in the alpine.

A report from Monday of storm slabs up to size 2 being remote-triggering from flat areas up to 75m away.  This was reported in the NE part of the Coquihalla area.  Slabs were 40-60cm thick and were releasing on the crust/surface hoar layer. On Sunday, natural storm slab activity up to size 2 were reported at treeline and in the alpine.  Natural activity is expected again on Tuesday with additional storm loading.

The new storm slab is typically 40-60 cm thick and sits on the rain crust/surface hoar layer that formed last week. The crust typically extends to around 2200m elevation and the surface hoar that sits above is typically 2-5mm where it exists.  In some areas, the new snow may be well bonded to this layer but in other areas the layer remains highly reactive so some local investigating may be required. Strong forecast winds on Tuesday are expected to quickly form touchy new wind slabs. The November crust is deeply buried near the ground and while triggering this layer is generally unlikely, the likelihood of triggering does increase during the storm with the additional weight of the new snow.