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Avalanche Forecast

Jan 9th, 2015–Jan 10th, 2015
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low
Alpine
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate
Treeline
2: Moderate
The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate
Below Treeline
1: Low
The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Coastal.

Conditions are improving, but windslabs remain a concern at treeline and above.

Confidence

Good - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Saturday

Weather Forecast

Freezing levels will remain at the valley bottom for the next few days. A pulse of Pacific moisture will move onshore this afternoon and evening, bringing 2 to 5 cm of precipitation to the area. Some low lying areas may see freezing rain as the system moves onshore. A ridge of high pressure will rebuild over the interior of the province briefly and another Pacific frontal system should arrive on the north coast early in the week bringing rising temperatures and more precipitation.

Avalanche Summary

On Thursday, several size 1.5 explosive controlled avalanches were reported. Reports of natural avalanche activity have diminished, but the potential for human triggering is still a concern.

Snowpack Summary

Storm snow amounts vary across the region. Some southern areas received close to 1m of new snow and northern areas probably around half that. Strong winds have redistributed large amounts of the recent storm snow and rain in some areas has produced a surface crust layer that will be of concern with future snow loading. A buried surface hoar layer in the mid-snowpack is still on the radar in northern sections like Bear Pass and Ninginsaw Pass. The mid December crust can also be found in the middle of the snowpack and is sandwiched with facets and surface hoar. The November crust down near the bottom of the snowpack is generally well bonded but may be reactive in some locations..

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Wind loaded slopes remain a concern at treeline and above.
Assess start zones carefully and use safe travel techniques.>Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Use caution in lee areas in the alpine. Recent wind loading has created wind slabs.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 2

Persistent Slabs

Weak layers still exist in the mid snow pack and rider triggering is possible. Cornice failures and small avalanches may produce a larger avalanche.
Use caution around convexities, ridge crests, rock outcroppings and anywhere else with a thin or variable snowpack.>Avoid exposure to overhead avalanche terrain, large avalanches may reach the end of run out zones.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6