Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Mar 20th, 2016–Mar 21st, 2016

Alpine

3: Considerable

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be considerable

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: South Coast.

Forecast snowfall amounts for Sunday night and Monday vary greatly across the region. Pay close attention to how much snow falls in your area, and be prepared to back off to simple terrain.

Confidence

Moderate - Forecast snowfall amounts are uncertain on Monday

Weather Forecast

In most areas 8-15cm of snow is expected to fall between Sunday night and Monday afternoon. Another 10cm may fall on Monday night. Generally overcast skies and light flurries are forecast for Tuesday and Wednesday. Ridgetop winds will be moderate to strong from the southwest on Sunday night and Monday, and then become light on Tuesday and Wednesday. Freezing levels will hover around 1400m on Monday and Tuesday, and then drop to about 1200m by Wednesday.

Avalanche Summary

Observations were limited on Saturday, although a size 1.5 natural wind slab avalanche was observed near the Hurley Road on west aspect at treeline. New snow and wind on Sunday and Monday will encourage new wind slab activity at higher elevations while rain will promote a round of loose wet avalanche activity below treeline.

Snowpack Summary

New snow and moderate winds on Sunday and Monday will form new wind slabs at higher elevations. Below treeline, rain will saturate the upper snowpack. The new snow will overlie a sun crust on sun-exposed slopes, dry settled powder on shady slopes, and pockets of fresh wind slab in lee and cross-loaded terrain near ridge crests. Below the new snow the snowpack is strong and well-settled throughout with no notable persistent weaknesses. Cornices are reported to be large and fragile.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

New snow and southwest winds will form new wind slabs at treeline and above. New wind slabs will be most reactive at higher elevations where temperatures have remained colder.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain. >Be careful with wind loaded pockets, especially near ridge crests and roll-overs.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South, South West.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Likely

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Cornices

Cornices are huge and potentially weak. Stormy weather on Monday will encourage ongoing cornice development.

Extra caution needed around cornices with current conditions.>Give cornices a wide berth when travelling on or below ridges.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 5