Archived

Avalanche Forecast

Jan 15th, 2015–Jan 16th, 2015

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Alpine

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating in the alpine will be moderate

Treeline

2: Moderate

The avalanche danger rating at treeline will be moderate

Below Treeline

1: Low

The avalanche danger rating below treeline will be low

Regions: Northwest Inland.

Lack of recent avalanche activity indicates we haven't seen the loads necessary to trigger buried weak layers. Conservative route selection is still essential to staying safe while the snowpack bonds.

Confidence

Fair - Due to the number and quality of field observations

Weather Forecast

A fast-moving cold front arrives on the North Coast Thursday afternoon bringing more precipitation. Rain at lower elevations and snow above 1500 metres. Freezing level should drop to 700 metres late Thursday night, or early Friday morning. The Inland region should see 2 to 5 cm of snow on Thursday, and 5 to 10 cm on Sunday.

Avalanche Summary

No reports of avalanche activity in the region yesterday, but further west there have been reports of large natural avalanches on N and NW facing slopes around 1800m.

Snowpack Summary

Strong South winds are building wind-slabs, generally depositing snow on N and NE aspects. A rain crust is still out there up to 1600m and melt freeze crust to 1850m. Keep in mind a surface hoar layer reported to be 15 to 20cm below the surface in areas protected from the wind. We're watching the December crust, but we haven't seen any activity on it recently, most likely because it hasn't received a significant load on it. Near the base of the snowpack is a November crust-facet combination that could remain problematic for some time.

Avalanche Problems

Wind Slabs

Forecast winds with new snow will load lee slopes in the next little while. Be aware of wind-loaded pockets that might fail with rider loads.

Avoid freshly wind loaded features.>Use ridges or ribs to avoid pockets of wind loaded snow.>Choose well supported terrain without convexities.>

Aspects: North, North East, East, South East, South.

Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.

Likelihood: Possible

Expected Size: 1 - 3

Persistent Slabs

This weakness is widely variable in depth and seems to be mostly around tree-line and below . It could be triggered by a small wind-slab avalanche or the weight of a snow machine.

Be cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.>Use caution around convexities, ridge crests, rock outcroppings and anywhere else with a thin or variable snowpack.>Be aware of the potential for large, deep avalanches.>

Aspects: All aspects.

Elevations: All elevations.

Likelihood: Unlikely - Possible

Expected Size: 2 - 6