Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Glacier.
Exercise extra caution on south through west facing slopes as a buried crust may enhance the reactivity and propagation of recently formed slabs.
Confidence
High
Avalanche Summary
Natural avalanche activity has tapered off. Last week there were several human triggered avalanches up to size 2, all on sun affected aspects failing on the sun crust buried in early January.
Snowpack Summary
30cms of recent storm snow overlies variable wind slabs/wind effect in open terrain, and settling facetted snow in sheltered areas below tree-line.
A sun crust (Jan 3), down 50cm and most prominent at tree-line has been the failure plane for recent human triggered avalanches.
Below 2100m there is decomposing crust down 75cm (from Dec 5th/6th).
The Dec 1 surface hoar layer is down 110cm and is decomposing.
Weather Summary
Continued small inputs of new snow coupled with winds through the week will maintain conditions for possible slab avalanche formation.
Tues: Flurries - 4cm, light SW wind, high -4°C, low -7°C, freezing level (FZL) 1600m
Wed: Isolated flurries - trace of new snow, moderate SW wind, high -5°C, low -8°C, FZL 1400m
Thurs: Flurries - 6cm, moderate SW wind, high -6°C, low -9°C, FZL 1100m
Terrain and Travel Advice
- Caution around convexities or sharp changes in terrain.
- Be especially cautious as you transition into wind affected terrain.
Avalanche Problems
Storm Slabs
Recent snow with variable wind has created a soft slab that will be most triggerable near ridgelines and on convex slopes.
Aspects: All aspects.
Elevations: Alpine, Treeline.
Likelihood: Likely
Expected Size: 1 - 2.5
Persistent Slabs
Be extra cautious on South through West aspects, where there is a sun-crust down 40-70cm that has been reactive to skier/rider traffic. This may be more reactive below tree line when temperatures warm up.
Aspects: South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: All elevations.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1.5 - 2.5