Avalanche Forecast
Regions: Olympics.
Moist to wet surface snow should gradually refreeze with light new snow accumulations expected by late Friday. Caution in higher elevations where possibly greater new snow may accumulate, especially lee slopes near ridges.
Detailed Forecast
Increasing clouds with initially very mild temperatures early Friday should gradually turn to light rain and snow by midday with gradually lowering freezing levels. A frontal passage Friday night should cause some new snow, but only light amounts are expected.Â
Strong melt freeze surface snow should gradually cool with some isolated wind or storm slabs developing by late Friday at higher elevations.Â
Most areas near and below treeline in the Olympics do not have enough snow to cause an avalanche danger.
Snowpack Discussion
The 16-18 inches of storm snow that fell March 14th-15th has all but melted at Hurricane Ridge. The total snow depth at the NWAC weather station settled or melted and lost 10 inches last week, retreating to about the same as before the mid-March storm cycle.
Just a few inches of new snow accumulated last weekend. Winds may have built some small cornices along ridges and built some small wind slabs on lee slopes. The 3 or so inches of snow that accumulated at Hurricane Ridge, Tuesday night has been washed away by light rain and warm winds Wednesday, and the sunshine and very mild temperatures Thursday.Â
Overall the snowpack remains meager at Hurricane. There is probably only enough recent snow for avalanches above treeline on the higher peaks of the Olympics.
Avalanche Problems
Loose Wet
Release of wet unconsolidated snow or slush. These avalanches typically occur within layers of wet snow near the surface of the snowpack, but they may quickly gouge into lower snowpack layers. Like Loose Dry avalanches, they start at a point and entrain snow as they move downhill, forming a fan-shaped avalanche. They generally move slowly, but can contain enough mass to cause significant damage to trees, cars or buildings. Other names for loose-wet avalanches include point-release avalanches or sluffs. Loose Wet avalanches can trigger slab avalanches that break into deeper snow layers.
Travel when the snow surface is colder and stronger. Plan your trips to avoid crossing on or under very steep slopes in the afternoon. Move to colder, shadier slopes once the snow surface turns slushly. Avoid steep, sunlit slopes above terrain traps, cliffs areas and long sustained steep pitches.
Several loose wet avalanches, and lots of pinwheels and roller balls.
Loose wet avalanches occur where water is running through the snowpack, and release at or below the trigger point. Avoid terrain traps such as cliffs, gullies, or tree wells. Exit avalanche terrain when you see pinwheels, roller balls, a slushy surface, or during rain-on-snow events.
Aspects: East, South East, South, South West, West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1
Cornices
Cornice Fall is the release of an overhanging mass of snow that forms as the wind moves snow over a sharp terrain feature, such as a ridge, and deposits snow on the downwind (leeward) side. Cornices range in size from small wind lips of soft snow to large overhangs of hard snow that are 30 feet (10 meters) or taller. They can break off the terrain suddenly and pull back onto the ridge top and catch people by surprise even on the flat ground above the slope. Even small cornices can have enough mass to be destructive and deadly. Cornice Fall can entrain loose surface snow or trigger slab avalanches.
Cornices can never be trusted and avoiding them is necessary for safe backcountry travel. Stay well back from ridgeline areas with cornices. They often overhang the ridge edge can be triggered remotely. Avoid areas underneath cornices. Even small Cornice Fall can trigger a larger avalanche and large Cornice Fall can easily crush a human. Periods of significant temperature warm-up are times to be particularly aware.
A corniced ridgeline. A large cornice has formed at the top of the ridge. A smaller cornice has formed to the left of the trees from crossloading.
Cornices are easy to identify and are confined to lee and cross-loaded ridges, sub-ridges, and sharp convexities. They are easiest to trigger during periods of rapid growth (new snow and wind), rapid warming, and during rain-on-snow events. Cornices often catch people by surprise when they break farther back onto flatter areas than expected.
Aspects: North, North East, East, North West.
Elevations: Alpine.
Likelihood: Possible
Expected Size: 1 - 1