Avalanche forecast

Jasper

Dec 20 – 21, 2019Parks Canada
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Avalanche danger

Sat
Sun
Alpine
3 · Considerable
Treeline
3 · Considerable
Below
2 · Moderate

Highlights

Significant amounts of wind and precipitation forecasted for Friday and Saturday. As the precipitation falls the hazard will rise. Expect Highway 93N to be closed Sunday. Ice climbs Weeping Wall and Polar Circus will be closed Saturday and Sunday.

Avalanche problems

  • Wind Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–2.5

    Strong SW winds are creating wind slabs in NW to SE lee aspects. Sensitivity expected to be reactive in the immediate future and may wake deeper, weaker interfaces.

  • Storm Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible
    Size
    1–2

    As new snow accumulates, the hazard will increase.

  • Deep Persistent Slabs

    • Alpine
    • Treeline
    • Below treeline
    Likelihood
    Possible - Likely
    Size
    1–3

    A few large avalanches were observed during last cycle early in December and we suspect it was on this layer. Triggering the windslab problem has potential to release this lower problem layer.

Weather Forecast

"Atmospheric river" setting up to bring moist warm air from the southwest starting early friday morning and persisting through Saturday night. This system will bring moderate to strong south west winds and significant amounts of precipitation. Freezing levels could rise to 1600 meters on Friday.

Snowpack Summary

Moderate to strong SW ridge winds continue building varied strength windslabs on lee and crossloaded features at or above treeline. Persistent interfaces layered through the snowpack that might wake as the up to as the 25cm's of new snow forecasted in the next 24 hours accumulates.

Avalanche Summary

A skier accidental size 1 wind slab in an alpine feature was reported today on the south west side of Hilda Ridge. No other avalanches observed on Thursday. Expect to see more avalanche activity Friday and through the weekend.

Confidence

Timing, track, or intensity of incoming weather system is uncertain on Friday

Regions covered