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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Dec 6th, 2019–Dec 7th, 2019

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

Lizard-Flathead.

Timing and intensity of snowfall is uncertain. Watch for changing conditions and dial back terrain choices as snow accumulates. Expect avalanche hazard to increase throughout the day.

Confidence

Low - Uncertainty is due to the timing of the incoming weather system. Uncertainty is due to the limited number of field observations.

Weather Forecast

Friday night: Cloudy, flurries with 2-5 cm, moderate southwest winds, alpine temperature -2 C, freezing level around 1500 m.

Saturday: Cloudy, 5-15 cm of snow, moderate southwest wind, alpine high temperature -2 C, freezing level dropping from around 1500 m.

Sunday: Decreasing cloud cover, another 10-25 cm of snow possible overnight with isolated flurries continuing throughout the day, light northerly winds, alpine high temperature -4 C, freezing level at valley bottom

Monday: Cloudy with periods of sun, isolated flurries with a trace of accumulation, alpine high temperature -7 C, freezing level at valley bottom

Avalanche Summary

There have been few recent avalanches reported in the region. A couple of small wind slabs triggered by explosives have been observed, and one stepped down to a weak layer buried deeper in the snowpack. 

If you are getting out into the mountains, let us know what you see by posting to the Mountain Information Network! 

Snowpack Summary

The 2-5 cm of snow that fell Friday brings the total to 10-15 cm from this week's scattered flurries. Another 5-15 cm is forecast for Saturday with southwest winds that are likely to continue drifting snow into more cohesive slabs at upper elevations.

Crust layers from November and October can still be found deeper in the snowpack. As the load on these weak layers increases with new snow, they could become more reactive.

Snowpack depths are highly variable this early in the season with amounts ranging between 50-100 cm at higher elevations and tapering rapidly below treeline.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.