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Avalanche Forecast

Archived

Jan 1st, 2020–Jan 2nd, 2020

Alpine
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.
Alpine
Natural avalanches possible, human triggered probable.
Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely, human triggered possible.
Below Treeline
Natural avalanches unlikely.

Regions

South Coast.

Thursday may offer some calm before the next powerful storm promises heavy rain... unless it arrives sooner than anticipated.

Confidence

Moderate - Uncertainty is due to the timing of the incoming weather system.

Weather Forecast

Wednesday night: Partly cloudy, moderate northwest winds, alpine temperatures near -2 C, freezing levels dropping to 500 m.

Thursday: Increasing cloud, 5-10 cm of snow, moderate southwest winds, alpine high temperatures near -1 C, freezing levels near 500 m jumping to 2000 m as the next storm system moves in in the early evening.

Friday: Cloudy, 60 mm of precipitation falling as heavy rain with freezing levels near 2000 m, strong southwest winds, alpine high temperatures near 5 C.

Saturday: Cloudy with another pulse of precipitation dropping an additional 40 mm as rain changing to snow as freezing levels drop to 700 m by mid-day, moderate southwest winds, alpine high temperatures near 3 C.

Avalanche Summary

No avalanches have been reported in the region. Forecast weather is expected maintain a low danger scenario in all but the region's highest alpine areas given the anticipated timing of the incoming storm.

Snowpack Summary

Substantial amounts of rain have soaked the existing snowpack up to 2000 m. Given the recent cooling trend, the avalanche hazard trend has decreased. In region's highest alpine areas, snowfall may have formed slabs that could still be possible to trigger.

Snowpack depths near treeline range from 140-180 cm, and the snowpack diminishes rapidly with elevation.

Terrain and Travel

  • Carefully evaluate bigger terrain features on an individual basis before committing to them.

Problems

Storm Slabs

Storm Slab avalanches are the release of a cohesive layer (a slab) of new snow that breaks within new snow or on the old snow surface. Storm-slabs typically last between a few hours and few days (following snowfall). Storm-slabs that form over a persistent weak layer (surface hoar, depth hoar, or near-surface facets) may be termed Persistent Slabs or may develop into Persistent Slabs.